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Ichimoku Analysis (4 hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1837.08
Kijun-Sen- $1839.57
Gold prices trade quietly due to the US market holiday. The yellow metal is cautious as the market eyes a 50 bpbs rate hike in Mar. The upbeat data and inflation has increased the chance of aggressive rate hikes by the Fed. It hits a high of $1847 and is currently trading around $1838.
Major economic data to watch out for
US flash services PMI
US Flash manufacturing PMI
Existing Home Sales
US dollar index-Neutral. Minor support around 102.50/101.50. The near-term resistance is 104.90/106.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 50 bpbs rate hike in Mar jumped to 18.10% from 9.2% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield trades flat after hitting a multi-week high. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -80 basis points from -88% bpbs.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Mixed (Neutral for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1816 (21-W EMA), a break below targets of $1800/$1788/$1748. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1850, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1900/$1925/$1950.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1848-51 with SL around $1871 for TP of $1800.
