FxWirePro: GBP /NZD set for bigger drop, but close below key fibo needed

• GBP/NZD continued its decline on Friday as dovish expectations for the BoE outweighing the impact of stronger-than-expected UK economic data.

• Official figures released Friday showed UK retail sales volumes rose 0.5% in September, defying expectations of a decline, supported by strong demand for new iPhones and gold from online jewellers.

•A separate survey showed consumer confidence rose a bit this month with households more willing to spend.

•Wednesday’s data showed inflation remained steady, contrary to expectations of a rise, while government borrowing though at its highest since 2020 was slightly closer to official forecasts than previously estimated..

• Market pricing now indicates a 75% probability of a Bank of England rate cut by December 18, up sharply from the 45% chance seen before the data.

• Immediate resistance is located at 2.3244(SMA 20), any close above will push the pair towards 2.3479(Higher BB).

• Immediate support is seen at 2.3122(38.2%fib 0) and break below could take the pair towards 2.3016(Lower BB).

Recommendation: Good to sell around 2.3190, with stop loss of 2.3300, and target price of 2.3090