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• GBP/AUD fell on Friday as softer-than-forecast inflation data offset Friday's upbeat retail sales, consumer confidence and business activity figures.
• British retail sales unexpectedly increased in September, driven by strong technology sales and higher demand for gold from online jewellers, while consumer sentiment in October climbed to its joint-highest level since August 2024.
• Meanwhile, preliminary data from S&P Global showed that UK business activity displayed early signs of recovery, according to the Composite Purchasing Managers' Index released on Friday..
• Futures markets now price in roughly a 65% probability of a 25-basis-point BoE rate cut by year-end, slightly lower than the 75% chance seen before Friday’s data.
• Immediate resistance is located at 2.0493(38.2%fib ), any close above will push the pair towards 2.0647(50%fib).
• Immediate support is seen at 2.0310(23.6%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 2.0247(Lower BB).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 2.0450 with stop loss of 2.0550 and target price of 2.0350
