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Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- 1.08693
Kijun-Sen- 1.08936
EURUSD is trading weak for a fifth consecutive year on board-based US dollar buying. It hits a low of 1.08448 and is currently trading around 1.08865.
The US dollar gained momentum from an increase in safe-haven assets and surging US bond yields.
Major economic data to watch this week
Aug 22nd, 2023, Existing home sales and Richmond manufacturing index (2:00 pm GMT)
Aug 23rd, 2023, German flash manufacturing and services PMI (7:30 am GMT)
UK flash manufacturing and services PMI (8:30 am GMT)
US flash manufacturing and services PMI (1:45 pm GMT)
Aug 24th, 2023, US Core durable goods order and unemployment claims (12:30 pm GMT)
Aug 25th, 2023, German IFO Business Climate (8:00 am GMT)
Jackson hole symposium Powell speech (2:05 pm GMT)
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Sep increased to 88.5% from 88% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield surged sharply and hit its highest level since 2007. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -67% from -110%.
The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA, 55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any indicative break below 1.0830 confirms further bearishness: a decline to 1.0760/1.0700 is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.0920. The breach above targets 1.0950/1.1000/ 1.1070/1.1100/1.1150.
Indicator (4-hour chart)
CCI – bearish
Directional movement index – Neutral
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.0900 with SL around 1.0960 for a TP of 1.0800.
