Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- 1.10546
Kijun-Sen- 1.10546
EURUSD pared most of its gains despite a hawkish rate hike by ECB. It hiked its rates by bpbs to 4.25% as expected. The central has kept its door open for further tightening to tackle inflation. The pair showed a massive sell-off after upbeat US GDP data. It hits an intraday low of 1.09485 and is currently trading around 1.09562.
US GDP accelerated to a 2.4% annualized rate in Q2, compared to a forecast of 1.8%.
Jul 28th, 2023, Core PCE index (12:30 pm GMT)
Revised UoM consumer sentiment (2:00 pm GMT)
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Sep increased to 79% from 0% a day ago.
The US 10-year yield surged more than 5% on upbeat US GDP data. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -89.50% from -110%.
The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA, 55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any indicative break below 1.0900 confirms further bearishness: a dip to 1.0850/1.0830 is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.1000. The breach above targets 1.1050/1.11000.
Indicator (4-hour chart)
CCI – Bearish
Directional movement index – Bearish
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.1100 with SL around 1.1070 for a TP of 1.0800.
