Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- 1.06555
Kijun-Sen- 1.07085
EURUSD recovered nearly 90 pips from Friday's low upbeat market sentiment. The pair was one of the worst performers past three weeks as a surge in inflation, positive US economic data increased the chance of further rate hikes by the Fed. Market eyes FOMC Meeting minutes for further direction. It hits a low of 1.0700 at the time of writing and is currently trading around 1.06937.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in Mar increased to 84.90% from 81.90% a day ago.
The US 10-year yield recovered sharply after mixed US CPI data. Any close above 3.75% targets $3.95%. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -86 basis points from -76% bpbs.
Technical:
The pair is trading above short-term 21 EMA, below 55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any break above 1.0700 confirms intraday bullishness; a jump to 1.0760/1.0800 is possible. The near-term support is around 1.0660. The breach below will drag the pair to 1.0600/1.0525.
Indicator (4-hour chart)
CCI – Bearish
Directional movement index – Neutral
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.0738-40 with SL around 1.0800 for a TP of 1.06000.
