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FxWirePro: EUR/USD call spreads on likely upswings in short term but 1M butterfly spread hedges puzzling long term trend

  • Rationale: We all have been well aware that next key driver for this pair was Fed's rate hike expectations but recent FX collapse that is created by Chinese bank would probably reveal US may defer this big event to the later during Christmas season.
    Meanwhile, one can guess that Euro may likely gain from Chinese devaluation factor, Euro has collapsed from the peaks of May 2014 (almost more than 23%) but for now some sort of ray hope for recovery is seen slightly.

  • Technical Roundup:
    RSI: Upswings are supported by this oscillating strength index on daily charts as we saw positive convergence with rise in price. But long term trend is certainly puzzled when plotted weekly graphs.
    Stochastic: Prevailing uptrend to persist as it %K crossover signifies rising prices are not yet overweighed. Same is the case with long term trend by stochastic.
    20 day Moving averages: This lagging indicator is suggesting prices for current trend is moving in quite right direction. Long term remains deceptive.

  • ATM Vols: We can observe ATM vols for EURUSD are increasing a bit higher side for next 1 to 3 months period probably due to Fed's speculation. We cannot afford to miss this speculating opportunities as this pair sensing second highest HY vols among the pool.

  • Currency Option Strategies:

    Trading: Since short term uptrend is anticipated we like to extract the leverage benefits from buying 15D (1%) Out-Of-The-Money call while shorting 7D (-1%) In-The-Money call for a net credit.

    Hedging: On long terms perspectives we recommend Shorting 2 lots of 2W At-The-Money put options while simultaneously buying 1M (2.65%) In-The-Money -0.90 delta put options and buying 1M (-6.35%) Out-Of-The-Money put contract with delta close to zero.
    The long put butterfly spread is a limited profit, limited risk options trading strategy that is taken when the options trader thinks that EURUSD would neither rise nor drop much by next month or so.
    Underlying range = Upper band - 1.1440; lower band - 1.0450 (Refer: ATM vols for EURUSD in nutshell).
  • Market Data
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