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FxWirePro: EUR/NZD hovers around major trendline resistance at 1.6240, further upside only on break above

  • EUR/NZD up 0.51% on the day, trading at 1.6241 at around 0530 GMT.
     
  • The pair resumed upside after brief correction and is currently hovering around major trendline resistance at 1.6240.
     
  • We see further upside on decisive break above. Scope then for test of 1.6469 (June 7, 2016 high).
     
  • Kiwi dented after New Zealand Treasury's bearish GDP forecasts.
     
  • Treasury expects the RBNZ to kick-off tightening in mid-2018. The Treasury also sees a smaller surplus in 2019-21 on lower growth.
     
  • Some profit taking likely in the Euro after run-up ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium.
     
  • There are chances that ECB's Draghi could disappoint market participants by not touching upon the central bank's tapering plans.

Support levels - 1.62, 1.6140 (5-DMA), 1.6007 (20-DMA), 1.5842 (23.6% Fib retracement of 1.4534 to 1.6246 rally)

Resistance levels - 1.6240 (trendline), 1.63 (psychological level), 1.6545 (50% Fib retrace of 1.8555 to 1.45348 fall)

Call update: Our previous call (http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-EUR-NZD-fails-at-major-trendline-resistance-at-16240-good-to-short-rallies-859630) has been stopped out.

Recommendation: Watch out for break above 1.6240 to go long

FxWirePro launches Absolute Return Managed Program. For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/invest

 

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September 20 15:30 UTC Released

BRForeign Exchange Flows*

Actual

2.161 Bln USD

Forecast

Previous

-1.251 Bln USD

September 20 14:30 UTC Released

TRCentral Govt Debt Stock*

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820.5 Bln TRY

Forecast

Previous

817.1 Bln TRY

September 21 08:30 UTC 428428m

GBPSNB, MM GBP

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Forecast

Previous

-0.76 Bln GBP

September 21 08:30 UTC 428428m

GBPSNCR, MM GBP

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Forecast

Previous

-3.912 Bln GBP

September 21 08:30 UTC 428428m

GBPSNB Ex Banks GBP

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Forecast

7.100 Bln GBP

Previous

-0.184 Bln GBP

September 21 12:00 UTC 638638m

BRIPCA-15 Mid-Month CPI

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Forecast

0.15 %

Previous

0.35 %

September 21 12:00 UTC 638638m

BRIPCA-15 Mid-Month CPI YY*

Actual

Forecast

2.60 %

Previous

2.68 %

September 21 12:30 UTC 668668m

CAWholesale Trade MM

Actual

Forecast

-0.9 %

Previous

-0.5 %

September 21 12:30 UTC 668668m

USInitial Jobless Claims

Actual

Forecast

300 k

Previous

284 k

September 21 12:30 UTC 668668m

USJobless Claims 4-Wk Avg

Actual

Forecast

Previous

263.25 k

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