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- EUR/JPY rangebound on the day as markets remain cautious ahead of ECB policy meeting.
- The pair is holding above major support in the 129.65 to 129.76 range. We see weakness only on break below.
- Markets are expecting the ECB Chief Draghi to refrain from EUR jawboning, and to leave the policy settings unchanged.
- The rhetoric to follow will be keenly watched and fresh hints on the QE tapering plans would be viewed as a major policy shift towards a hawkish narrative and push the EUR higher.
- Ahead of the ECB decision, the single currency will take some cues from the German industrial production and Eurozone final Q2 GDP revision.
- On the upside, decisive close above 5-DMA raises scope for test of 131.70 levels.
Support levels - 129.76 (20-DMA), 129.70 (50-DMA), 129.53 (cloud top)
Resistance levels - 130.18 (5-DMA), 130.40 (Aug 18 high), 130.77 (July 11 high), 131, 131.70 (Aug 30 high)
Recommendation: Focus on ECB for cues on further direction.
FxWirePro Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's Hourly EUR Spot Index was at 26.4046 (Neutral), while Hourly JPY Spot Index was at 10.616 (Neutral) at 0700 GMT. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex.
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