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Glimpse on historical evidences:
We don’t think this pair needs our much emphasis if you refer our earlier write ups, please follow below links for more insights:
- http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-EUR-GBP-spikes-capitalizing-on-Brexit-risks-technicals-risk-reversals-favor-signal-upside-risks-hedge-payable-exposure-with-CRBS-156673
- http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-Watch-out-for-EUR-GBP-bullish-potential-above-resistance-at-07843-bulls-bet-on-highs-lows-binary-call-180544
- http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-3-white-soldiers-trigger-EUR-GBP-long-term-bullish-reversal-trend-continuation-is-subject-to-sustenance-of-50-retracement-180558
- http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-EUR-GBP-5-months-uptrend-seems-restrained-at-618-Fibos-break-out-below-channel-base-signals-more-bearish-pressures-197134
Caution of bull swings raised in 1st call (on Feb 07th) and advocated CRBS option hedging strategy accordingly, simultaneously we’ve also stated explicitly that the forecasts for EURGBP by H2 2016 at 0.78 owing to the risk premium for Brexit in the GBP TWI, (comparing 0.78 with spot FX at 0.7795).
“0.80” is what had been targeted in 2nd and 3rd calls if you referred above calls, the currency cross has pretty much achieved the targets and for now profit booking is seen in this pair considering significant UK referendum is approximately 2 months away from now, we may foresee .
Upon targets accomplishment, the bearish swings were anticipated and evidenced as stated in 3rd article upon breach below channel base (EUR/GBP 5-months’ uptrend seems restrained at 61.8% Fibos).
Road ahead:
Corrections below 61.8% & 50% fibo but more potential in this uptrend can be dependent on sustenance above resistance which is missing here, to substantiate daily technical indicators still signal no buying interests.
On EOD technical charts the down-streaks have now tested supports 0.7754 and bounces slightly but remains well below 21DMA.
Although tests supports at 0.7754, either speculative bear swings or likely to drift in sideways in short run, however the major trend still in bullish favour.
In contrast, if it manages to hold onto 0.7754, then there is no doubt in bulls resuming over the rallies back again, which could target 0.80 again.
