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• EUR/CAD fell sharply on Friday after stronger-than-expected Canadian jobs data strengthened expectations of a Bank of Canada rate hike next year.
• Canada’s unemployment rate surprised again in November, dropping to a 16-month low as the economy added 53,600 jobs its third consecutive month of strong employment growth.
• The labour force report is the final key data release before the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decision next week.
• The average hourly wage of permanent employees a key metric closely watched by the Bank of Canada for signs of underlying inflation held steady at 4% in November, unchanged from the previous month.
• Investors moved to fully price in an interest rate hike in 2026, up from a 20% chance before the jobs data, swap market data showed.
• Immediate resistance is located at 1.6262(38.2%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 1.6340 (23.6%fib).
• Support is seen at 1.6102(50%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 1.6016(Sep 2nd low).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 1.6120 , with stop loss of 1.6160 and target price of 1.6020
