FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022 
Currently, this is probably the best strategy as of now.
- FOM policymakers have successfully communicated their preference for faster rate hikes. If FOMC hikes three times this year, it would be the fastest pace of increase since 2006. The market has started pricing three rate hikes for 2017, with the first one being in March. Yet the dollar hasn’t been a major outperformer. It has remained strong, though.
- Yesterday, the ADP employment report from the United States pointed to solid job gains. The change in total private payroll was at highest since 2014, the change in manufacturing payroll was at the highest since 2012. The number of jobs added in the construction sector was at the highest since at least 2002, when the records began. Still, the dollar wasn’t a major outperformer. It was up just 0.3 percent after the report. It was any way up 0.15 percent before the report was released.
The above reaction is expected given the fact that the market is focused not on the developments in the United States but the political elections in Europe, especially over the French election, for which the first round would be held on 23rd April and the second round on 7th May.
Unless the French election is done with, breakouts in either buy side or sell side is not expected in the dollar. After pollsters horribly failed to predict both the Brexit and the election of Donald Trump, investors are extra cautious heading into another decisive election which could mark the end of the euro.
The dollar index is currently trading at 102.1, flat for the day.
