South Africans go to the polls to choose a new government: what’s different this time 
Why many countries have prosecuted former leaders 
Why are grocery bills so high? 
Cost of living: if you can’t afford as much fresh produce, are canned veggies or frozen fruit just as good? 
Scrapping FA Cup replays has upset smaller clubs, but they could still win from being matched against the top sides 
Iran: who will be the next supreme leader? 
Rethinking roads as public spaces – what NZ cities can learn from Barcelona’s ‘superblock’ urban design 
International study cap: How some private companies are marketing tech and AI solutions 
Why the US government is intervening in the live music business and could break up Live Nation Entertainment – a music industry scholar explains 
Colorado takes a new – and likely more effective – approach to the housing crisis 
What Philadelphians need to know about the city’s 7,000-camera surveillance system 
Carbon credits are useful for stabilizing the climate, but are they used effectively? 
How the Middle Ages are being revisited through Indigenous perspectives 
The driving forces that could lead RUB: The import substitution policies in focus: In our view, the Russian import substitution policies are unlikely to be successful. As things stand the agriculture and machinery sectors of the economy make up less than 20% of GDP. Even assuming 10% YoY growth over the coming years for these sectors, it’s hard to see this having a meaningful effect on aggregate GDP growth anytime soon.
Although its future trajectory remains closely intertwined with a still uncertain commodity outlook, we expect global macro risks (Fed, China, RMB) to be less threatening to the ruble’s performance. Indeed, the very recent decoupling between oil and the dollar could be an omen to further upside (or resilience, at the very least) in oil prices, irrespective of the DXY.
Moreover, should Brent hold up well relative to non-oil commodities (notably, industrial metals), the risk of souring sentiment triggered by China’s slowdown might take less of a toll on Russian assets.
Trade recommendation (USDRUB):
At spot ref. 64.1936: we recommend either going long in 1w/2m diagonal USDRUB credit put spread or shorts in near month futures, but the oil and RUB recovery now look too extended for a put position vs. the USD as from current levels we see only contained a further potential for RUB gains.
A 67/64.50 diagonal put spread is likely to fetch for certain yields of the USD notional as it edges above up to higher strikes in next 1 week or so and slides as much as possible up to maturity on longs.
The risk is dubiously unlimited in shorts, the structure should benefit from a further compression in RUB volatility in a bullish scenario.
