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FxWirePro: D/S equation to disrupt WTI in short run – Stay hedged via 3-way straddles versus call ahead of EIA inventories

Oil got a bit ahead of itself in June, breaching $50/bbl, but has since eased as some earlier supply disruptions were resolved and the market focuses on the potential for slower demand growth, an overhang of refined products, and the upcoming seasonal reduction in refinery runs.

Uncertainty remains elevated and it is possible that prices temporarily fall back into the mid-$30s/bbl. However, we would see this as a speed bump and remain of the view that WTI will rise to $50/bbl by year-end and $60/bbl by the end of 2017 on the back of the weak upstream investment and continued reductions in non-OPEC supply.

The supply glut of refined products is depressing demand for crude, while concerns remain about slowing economic growth.
American Petroleum Institute figures Tuesday showed a lower than expected draw in U.S. crude stocks.
Crude stockpiles dropped by only 800,000 barrels in the latest week against expectations of a fall of two million.
Energy Information Administration figures due out Wednesday are forecast to show a draw of 2.275 million barrels of crude.

Hedge WTI prices and stay calm:

3-Way Options straddle versus Call
Spread ratio: (Long 1: Long 1: Short 1)

As we foresee more slumps if it manages to break 42.50 then bears would be exposed to more momentum in the days to come, maybe upto 41.85 in near terms.

How to execute:  

Go long in 3M At the money delta put of WTI crude, Go long 6M at the money delta call of WTI crude and simultaneously, Short 1M (1.5%) out of the money call of WTI crude with positive theta.

The strategy is likely to mitigate the downside risk as you can probably observe the above position flashes healthy delta as well as, the gamma on OTM put strikes.

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