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FxWirePro: Currency Weekly Outlook

US Dollar index was trading extremely weak and lost more than 100 pips in the previous week on easing US-China trade tension and Brexit optimism. EU and UK have agreed for a new deal on Friday but UK MPs deeply divided over Brexit and voted in favor to withhold approval of deal (322 in favor and 306 against). The index hits a low of 97.14 and is currently trading around 97.35.

 

On the data front, US retail sales and Philly fed manufacturing index came much weaker than expected. The retails sales declined -0.3% much worse than the forecast of 0.1%, Philly index was 5.6 vs estimate 7.3.

 

Canadian CPI y/y came steadily at 1.9% compared to a estimate of 1.8%, which has further reduced the chance of a rate cut by BOC.

 

The yellow metals are consolidating after a dip till $1476 and markets eyes Brexit, US-China trade talks for further direction. Any break below $1458 confirms bearish continuation.

 

US 10-year yield is trading slightly higher and any break above 1.907% will take it further up till 2%. The spread between yield has widened to 16 bps.

 

Weekly Technical:

 

EURUSD:

 

Major trend reversal level- 1.1285

 

Near term support- 1.1130/1.060

 

Near term resistance – 1.1178/1.1245

 

 

 

USDJPY:

 

Major trend reversal level- 109.05

 

Near term support- 107.80/106.40

 

Near term resistance – 109.05/110

 

USDCHF

 

Major trend reversal level- 1.0030

 

Near term support- 0.9900/0.97700

 

Near term resistance – 1.0030/10060

 

USDCAD

 

Major trend reversal level- 1.310

 

Near term support- 1.310/1.3020

 

Near term resistance – 1.3180/1.3235

 

Gold

 

Major trend reversal level- $1460

 

Near term support- $1480/$1460

 

Near term resistance – $1525/$1555

 

WTI Crude

 

Major trend reversal level- $57.05

 

Near term support- $50/$46

 

Near term resistance – $55.55/$57.05

 

Major Economic events for the week

 

Canadian retail sales- Tuesday (12:30 GMT)

 

EUROZONE Flash manufacturing PMI  - Thursday  (8:00 GMT)

 

ECB monetary policy - Thursday (11:45 GMT)

 

US Core Durable goods orders -Thursday (12:30 PM GMT)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

By Rangarajan Hariharan
  • Market Data
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