After a brief correction phase at the start of the week, the broad USD has quickly come back under pressure, with GBPUSD in particular setting new highs for the latest recovery from mid-May.
Cable prices (GBPUSD) have developed a briefer than expected pullback after breaking out of stiff resistance zone of 1.2650 levels, having developed a higher low in our 1.2650-1.2550 support region at 1.2620 and now back to a new high for the move. This type of price action may continue for the rest of the week, but our underlying view of a move up towards 1.30-1.32 remains. Only a setback through 1.2550-1.2500 would warn of a more significant turnaround and return to the April/May range.
Overall, bears in the minor trend seem to have been given up despite hanging man formation, while the current price attempts to bounce above 7, 21 & 100-DMAs with bullish DMA & MACD crossovers, while both leading oscillators show upward convergence to the prevailing upswings to indicate the buying momentum.
On a broader perspective, hanging man pops at 1.3202 levels to disrupt the last 3 and a half years’ consolidation phase, while bears break-down triangle support (refer monthly chart). The current price tumbles below 7, 21 & 100-EMAs, consequently, the major downtrend resumes and hits multi-years’ lows (1.14) as both leading and lagging oscillators are bearish bias on this timeframe.
Next projected downside levels are 1.1110-1.1080, the psychological 1.10 region, then 1.0840-1.0800 with 1.0625/1.0590 below there. Bloomberg shows the 1985 low as 1.0520, but we reckon it traded down to 1.0045.
Trading tips:
At spot reference: 1.2750 levels, contemplating above technical rationale, one-touch call options are advocated on trading grounds with upper strikes at 1.2810 levels.
Alternatively, we activated shorts in GBPUSD futures, ahead of Fed that is scheduled for their monetary policy, we wish to uphold these shorts in futures contracts of July’20 deliveries with an objective of arresting potential slumps.
