Geopolitical Shocks That Could Reshape Financial Markets in 2025 
Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
U.S. Stocks vs. Bonds: Are Diverging Valuations Signaling a Shift? 
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data 
US Futures Rise as Investors Eye Earnings, Inflation Data, and Wildfire Impacts 
U.S. Treasury Yields Expected to Decline Amid Cooling Economic Pressures 
Trump’s "Shock and Awe" Agenda: Executive Orders from Day One 
U.S. Banks Report Strong Q4 Profits Amid Investment Banking Surge 
Mexico's Undervalued Equity Market Offers Long-Term Investment Potential 
Stock Futures Dip as Investors Await Key Payrolls Data 
Gold Prices Slide as Rate Cut Prospects Diminish; Copper Gains on China Stimulus Hopes 
Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close 
European Stocks Rally on Chinese Growth and Mining Merger Speculation 
US Gas Market Poised for Supercycle: Bernstein Analysts 
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data 
2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch 
Stay short in USDTHB:
Parameters: Sell USDTHB, target 32.60, stop 34.60.
Thesis: Further THB gains are likely on the strong fundamental balance of payments support, foreign investor inflows, stable politics, and neutral valuations on a real trade-weighted basis, strengthening growth, and favorable real yields.
Key levels & strategy: We recommend entering the position at current levels. Technicals suggest that next downside levels are 33.20-33.50, and immediate resistance is at 34.45.
What to watch for: Geopolitical tensions, China growth disappointment, or market re-pricing of Fed tightening could weigh on THB.
Bullish KRW risk scenarios:
1) China growth surprises on the upside;
2) US CapEx cycle accelerates;
3) The domestic fiscal stimulus is stronger than expected
Bullish INR risk scenarios:
1) Global crude oil prices to weaken further
2) The stock of foreign equity holdings at USD165bn is also just 7.0% of GDP – half the level for the NJA -10 complex. Even so, concerns over the richness of equity valuations cannot be dismissed. At 18.3 times currently, the 12-month forward P/E of the NSE500 is well above the 10-year average of 14.4%, and any repricing in US Treasuries term premiums could cause a correction.
