The Federal Reserve held off hiking interest rates 
Will the RBA raise rates again? Unless prices surge over summer, it's looking less likely 
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Gas is good until 2050 and beyond, under Albanese gas strategy 
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The Federal Reserve and the art of navigating a soft landing ... when economic data sends mixed signals 
What central banks are doing to safeguard financial stability and why they must proceed with caution 
How is China being taught at Australian universities? 
AI may be to blame for our failure to make contact with alien civilisations 
Hedera hashgraph 
Along similar lines of EURUSD, we also like EUR call/CAD put flies.
The macro view on CAD is negative on a mix of BoC dovishness, sensitivity to NAFTA renegotiation talk which is likely to re-enter headlines over the next few weeks, and the potential for further near-term slippage in oil prices.
We introduce a Bank of Canada rate hike forecast for 3Q18 but would need to see a shift in tone to move it forward
Despite a strong run of Canadian data, the Bank of Canada has retained a dovish tone in its communications in recent months. This week continued that pattern, with Governor Poloz reiterating his belief that the Canadian output gap remains large, but January GDP subsequently surprised strongly to the upside. Our nowcaster now looks for 4.8% SAAR GDP growth in 1Q; we raise our forecast to a more cautious--but still robust--3.8%.
Hence, option pricing heavily favors EUR call/CAD put fly ownership, which are near 3y lows in premium (refer above chart).
2M 1.46 – 1.49 with 1.52 RKI –1.52 EUR call/CAD put flies indicatively cost at 35 bp EUR (spot ref. 1.4260, max payout ratio 5.8 times if RKI triggered, 11.4 times if not).
