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AUD/USD chart - Trading View
Spot Analysis:
AUD/USD was trading 0.14% lower on the day at 0.7389 at around 06:15 GMT
Previous Week's High/ Low: 0.7413/ 0.7316
Previous Session's High/ Low: 0.7415/ 0.7374
Fundamental Overview:
Earlier this week, the RBA kept its cash rate at a record low 0.1% and surprised markets by standing its ground on a decision to taper its bond buying programme from September
In his opening remarks to a parliamentary economics committee on Friday, Lowe said the RBA Board did consider the case for delaying the tapering to A$4 billion per week from next month from A$5 billion now.
The RBA published its quarterly forecast on Friday, in which the central bank cut near-term GDP forecasts but stays optimistic of recovery moving forward.
RBA SOMP predicts a 4% annual growth this year, followed by 4.25% next year and 2.5% in 2023. The unemployment rate is seen dropping to 4.25% next year and 4% by end-2023 from around 5% now.
Still, inflation is seen below the RBA's 2-3% target band until mid-2023 before inching up to 2.25% by end-2023.
Australia widens COVID-19 restrictions as Sydney reports record infections for second day in a row, despite a weeks-long lockdown.
U.S. Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday could show nonfarm payrolls surging last month due to seasonal adjustment factors.
According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 870,000 jobs last month after rising 850,000 in June. Unemployment rate is seen falling to 5.7% from 5.9%, while average hourly earnings forecast rising 0.3%.
Technical Analysis:
- AUD/USD is struggling at 21-EMA resistance for the 4th straight session
- GMMA indicator shows major trend is bearish, while minor trend is neutral
- The pair has paused 5 straight weeks of downside and had found support at 110-week EMA
- Decisive break above 21-EMA could see some upside, but Death Cross on the daily charts is likely to keep upside limited
Major Support and Resistance Levels:
Support - 0.7307 (110-week EMA), Resistance - 0.7405 (21-EMA)
Summary: Pre-NFP trading lull likely to keep the pair in tight ranges. Upbeat U.S. NFP data could drag the pair lower.
