FxWirePro: AUD/NZD breaks above 61.8% Fib, eyes trendline at 1.0830, stay long

• Antipodeans dented by poor China trade data, AUD/NZD edges lower from session highs at 1.0779.
   
• Chinese July trade data showed a big miss on imports and exports. Imports rose 11.0% v.s 18.0% expected and 17.2% last. Exports were up 7.2% also below forecasts at 11.0% and 11.3% last.
   
• Earlier in the day, Aussie was boosted by upbeat Australia’s business confidence data.
   
• The pair has broken above 61.8% Fib and is on track to test trendline at 1.0830.
   
• Technical indicators on weekly charts are bullish, RSI strong above 50, Stochs are biased higher and MACD is on verge of bullish crossover.
   
• We see weakness only on break below Ichi cloud top at 1.0653. Bullish invalidation seen on decisive break below 200-DMA at 1.0612.
   
• RBNZ’s survey showed 2-year inflation expectations decreased to 2.09%. 1-year-ahead inflation expectations decreased to 1.77% from 1.92%.
   
• Focus now on RBNZ, analysts expect the central bank to leave the OCR at 1.75% and foresee a dovish guidance.

Support levels - 1.0723 (5-DMA), 1.0679 (20-DMA), 0.1660 (100-DMA), 1.0618 (38.2% Fibo 1.10188 to 1.03706 fall)

Resistance levels - 1.0771 (61.8% Fib retrace of 1.1018 to 1.0370 fall), 1.08, 1.0830 (trendline)

Call update: Our previous long call (http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-AUD-NZD-breaks-100-DMA-at-10671-eyes-trendline-at-10830-stay-long-833838) has hit TP1.

Recommendation: Bias higher, hold for further upside.

FxWirePro Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's Hourly AUD Spot Index was at -107.306 (Bearish), while Hourly NZD Spot Index was at -132.938 (Bearish) at 0430 GMT. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex.

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