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It has been a tight tug of war between bulls and bears in AUDCAD major trend.
After resembling bullish engulfing formation on 4H chart the rallies are attempting to break out above stiff resistance of 0.9865 - 0.9870 levels. For now, more upside traction is visible on bullish DMA crossover which is backed by health momentum indicated from leading indicators.
On the contrary, the major trend has been drifting in the range, the failure swings are observed at stiff range resistance of 1.0345-50 levels, consequently, the prices slid below EMAs (refer monthly chart).
Ever since it has dropped from the above mentioned resistance levels, from last 4-5 months the pair has tumbled considerably. Amid this bearish journey bears have managed to break below strong support at 1.0222 levels.
Most importantly, please be noted that both leading oscillators evidence the downward convergence to the prevailing price dips to signal the strength in downtrend.
RSI has been converging downwards below 46 levels, while stochastic curves right from overbought zone have also consistently evidenced %D crossover which is bearish crossover (on monthly), currently slightly indecisive on intraday chart but bearish bias above 80 levels which is overbought territory.
MACD signals the extension of price rallies in short run, while this lagging indicator has been slightly indecisive in long run.
Hence, at spot reference: 0.9868 levels, we advise staying short in mid-month futures contracts on hedging grounds with a view to arrest the southward targets of another 150-200 pips, but maintain strict stop loss of 0.9985 levels.
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly AUD spot index is flashing +138 (which is extremely bullish), while hourly CAD spot index was at +42 levels (mildly bullish) at 06:39 GMT. For more details on the index, please refer below weblink:
http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex.
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