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FxWirePro: AUD/CAD recovery capped below 50-DMA, bias lower, stay short

  • AUD/CAD is extending grind lower in sloping channel pattern, bias lower.
     
  • Aussie dented after dovish RBA's quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP).
     
  • RBA SOMP showed the central bank concerned about the strength of the Aussie.
     
  • RBA revised up outlook for jobs growth, forecasts unemployment rate at 5.5 pct out to June 2019, 5.25 pct by Dec 2019.
     
  • Recovery in the pair was capped below 50-DMA which is stiff resistance at 0.9795.
     
  • Technical studies are bearish, we see scope for test of 61.8% Fib retrace of 0.91502 to 1.03975 rally at 0.9626. Further weakness could see test of channel base at 0.9535.
     
  • We see bearish invalidation only on breakout above 200-DMA at 0.9994.

Support levels - 0.9735 (July 12 low), 0.97 (Sept 27 low), 0.9685 (trendline), 0.9626 (61.8% Fib retrace of 0.91502 to 1.03975 rally)

Resistance levels - 0.9756 (5-DMA), 0.9795 (50-DMA), 0.9819 (20-DMA), 0.99 (channel top)

Call update: Our previous call (http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-AUD-CAD-Trade-Idea-989807) has hit TP1.

Recommendation: Bias lower, stay short for further downside.

FxWirePro Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's Hourly AUD Spot Index was at 56.5703 (Neutral), while Hourly CAD Spot Index was at 110.32 (Bullish) at 0630 GMT. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex.

FxWirePro launches Absolute Return Managed Program. For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/invest

 

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