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The ECB rhetoric has reduced expectation of an early ECB lift off but the EONIA market is still pricing 10bp of tightening by Jun18.
We acknowledge the risk of earlier lift-off relative to our baseline scenario. Close longs in Jun18 ECB OIS outright and instead initiate Jun18/Sep18 ECB OIS curve steepener as a cheap option on a Sep18 ECB hike.
We see high risks of ECB starting to normalize policy rates by the end of 2018 and with only little priced in for the year, we initiate Dec17/Dec18 ECB OIS outright steepener.
Initiate 1s/5s and keep reds/blues weighted swap curve bear steepener.
5Yx5Y appears expensive vs. front end rates: keep 2s/10s weighted bear steepener.
Bullish hedges: favor 2s/10s/30s bull belly richeners and keep 1Y swap/Bobl conditional weighted bull flattener.
Bund swap spread is broadly fair in our long-term fair value model, whereas Schatz swap spread is expensive vs. funding rate and 10Y France/Germany spread.
Modest repo funding pressure, receding French political risk and likely higher average maturity of ECB purchases versus February support tighter Schatz swap spread.
Express Schatz swap spread narrowing bias by paying Bund swap spread in the Schatz/Bund/Buxl swap spread fly but also favour Bobl/Bund swap spread curve steepener.
Too much directionality is priced in Schatz swap spread in a sell off: initiate Jun17 OTM Schatz swap spread bear widener.
Keep Sep17 FRA/OIS and 2Yx2Y EURUSD cross currency basis wideners.
We stay short Jun17 Schatz gamma via OTM puts and Mar18 EURIBOR gamma. Hold Schatz/Bundvol curve steepener across tails.
We recommend 15Yx15Y A/A+50bp payer spread as a long term bearish duration hedge.
Initiate 6Mx5Y (USD -EUR) weighted bear widener.
