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The CNY is one aspect of the wider trade tensions and PBoC would need to tread meticulously. On a bilateral basis, CNY is down around 6% vs USD year-to-date but on a trade weighted or CFETS basis, it is down only around 3%. This suggests USD strength is one reason be- hind USDCNY’s rise. Nevertheless, US officials will keenly track the pace of CNY weakness from here.
PBoC’s mid-point fix today was also set above 6.90 for the first time since May-2017. Are we about to see a sustained bout of CNY weakness and shift in PBoC’s policy stance? Probably not as this may incur the wrath of the US.
CNY FX is perceived as a tool in a confrontational trade war scenario: We have squared-off existing long in SGD and THB FX positions against the USD over the past ten days on the assumption of an adverse US-China trade conflict. Although we continue to shy away from being short these currencies or for that matter KRW and TWD given the starting point of current account balances and valuations. CNY FX is different to these other currencies in that it does not enjoy the aforementioned supportive factors any longer. In an adverse trade war, CNY will likely bear a part of the policy adjustment.
A bounded trade expression: We are activating a position in paid 3x6 CNH forwards (180 pips vs 3mth outright at 315 pips). The private sector is short USDs even though some of the imbalances moderated in 2Q’18 (refer above chart) and higher capital outflows could cause forward points to rise as has been the experience in 2015 and late 2016 / early 2017. The trade expression is a bounded one and not an outright short CNY one because every base-line scenario carries a tail risk and there is always a possibility that the trade tensions moderate in intensity or are spread over time. Courtesy: JPM
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly CNY spot index is inching towards 129 levels (which is bullish), hourly USD spot index was at -41 (bearish), while articulating (at 15:06 GMT). For more details on the index, please refer below weblink:
