Fundamental Evaluation Series: USD/CNH vs. 2-year yield spread

Brief background:

This chart shows the relation between the U.S. - China 2-year yield spread and the Dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate since 2013. It is visible even with the naked eyes that the two has enjoyed a very close relationship. It can also be seen that the infamous August 2015 devaluation of the Chinese yuan by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) that led to a global financial turmoil could very well be the result of rising U.S./China 2-year spread.

Since March 2015, the yield spread between the United States and China’s 2-year bond rose from -276.6 basis points to -131.3 basis points in favor of the dollar by June, while the exchange rate was kept flat around 6.2 per dollar. Finally, PBoC had to respond by a one-time devaluation of the yuan to 6.46 for per dollar. This shows, how significant the spread is for the pair. 

Past reviews:

In our last review in mid- September, we pointed to the spread to explain the recent strengthening of the yuan against the USD. We noted that since the U.S. election, the yield spread has widened from -129 basis points to -216 basis points in favor of the yuan. Naturally, the exchange rate has responded by declining from 6.95 per dollar to 6.54 per dollar.

In our October review, we noted that the yield spread has narrowed from 216 basis points to 206 basis points in favor of the dollar and the yuan has weakened around 90 pips against the dollar. The exchange rate is currently at 6.64 per dollar. We can see that the exchange rate has corrected more, creating a small divergence.

In our November review, we noted that the yield has only moved by 1.1 bps in favor of the yuan and the yuan has strengthened from 6.65 per dollar to 6.623 per dollar.

In our January 2018 review, we noted that a large divergence has set in. Since the review in early November, the spread (US-China) has narrowed from 205 bps to 152 bps, however, the yuan has strengthened from 6.623 per dollar to 6.329 per dollar.

In April, the spread has narrowed from 152 bps to 75 bps as of today in favor of the dollar, whereas the Chinese yuan has strengthened from 6.33 per USD to 6.3 per USD.

Analysis:

As expected, the Chinese yuan has finally started responding to the widening yield spread between the U.S. and China by declining at a rapid pace. The chart clearly shows that the divergence between the yield spread and the exchange rate is now largely reduced.

The future rise would depend on whether the spread is rising further or not.