French inflation seems to have remained stable in November

French inflation, measured by both CPI and HICP, is expected to have remained stable for the third straight month in November. According to a Societe Generale report, consumer price inflation is expected to have remained at 0.4 percent year-on-year, whereas HICP inflation is likely to have stayed at 0.5 percent.

The energy component is expected to weaken slightly; however, it might stay positive on an annual basis, possibly countering the marginal positive contribution from food prices. Meanwhile, core inflation is expected to have stayed flat in November after slipping slightly in October. CPI, excluding tobacco, is anticipated to have come in at 0.4 percent year-on-year in November.

“Looking ahead, inflation should recover at a faster pace, climbing above 1.0 percent by early next year driven by base effects from energy prices”, added Societe Generale.

Meanwhile, French consumer spending is expected to have improved in October. Consumer spending in France is anticipated to have risen 0.5 percent in sequential terms in the month of October. This is expected to be helped by a continued rebound in consumption of energy.

“With a constant profile, our forecast would lead to a 0.6 percent increase over 4Q as a whole”, added Societe Generale.

A small rise of around 0.45 percent quarter-on-quarter is expected as the boost from energy might wane.