Standard & Poor's stripped Finland of its AAA rating last year, while Fitch changed the outlook on its AAA rating to negative in March. Moody's, the third major rating agency, followed suit earlier this month, when it changed its outlook to negative. Those moves are a clear illustration of the challenging Finnish situation and the increasing strains public finances are facing.
However, the timing of Moody's move was a bit odd, as it followed the revelation of a programme by the new Finnish government that we find credible, while there had not been major changes in the economic outlook. Naturally, there are notable risks involved in the implementation.
Moody's notes they would consider moving the outlook back to stable, if the planned economic reforms and fiscal measures will be implemented, and will be effective in significantly strengthening both Finland's growth and the government's balance sheet.
In other words, full implementation of the government programme should guard Finland against further downgrades, says Nordea.


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