Fed rates barely pricing one hike this year

There is about 3bp decline in Fed rates across the yield curve following the release of the FOMC minutes, market is pushing the timing of liftoff slightly. The OIS market now has just 4bp priced in for the September FOMC meeting and 9.5bp for December. 

"The implied probability of a September liftoff is roughly 20%, the fed effective will increase by about 18-20bp after the first hike. The turbulence in Greece and China has depressed short-term US rates, but rates are expected to rise given that US data have come in stronger in recent weeks, supporting the September liftoff", says Bank of America.

The minutes also contained a reference to a technical change in the calculation of the effective fed funds rate. Starting next year the New York Fed will begin to report the fed effective rate as the volume-weighted median, as opposed to the volume-weighted mean, based on data collected directly from banks via the FR 2420 report.