Fed lift-off not before December?

Even if FOMC members expect stronger rate hikes than the market, the dots have moved towards the opinion of the market in past months. This is probably due to the fact that wage pressure is only beginning to emerge. Furthermore, external problems such as weaker growth of the emerging markets or the ongoing crisis surrounding Greece argue more for a cautious path.

"Should there be no further signs of increasing wage growth by September, the Fed could opt for a waiting stance. This would not change the big picture as external factors will hardly be able to dampen the stable domestic economy and higher wage growth is only a question of time", says Commerzbank.

Indeed, wages react to falling unemployment and a rising number of vacant jobs with a delay but they do react.