RBA Rate Hike Outlook: Impact on AUD/USD and ASX 200 
BOJ Rate Hike Expectations Grow as Board Member Signals Hawkish Stance 
ECB Signals Possible Interest Rate Move if Inflation Outlook Fails to Improve 
ECB Rate Outlook: Ceasefire Eases Pressure but Hikes Still Expected in 2026 
Bank of England Set to Hold Interest Rates as Inflation Risks and Iran War Impact Loom 
RBA Raises Interest Rates to 4.35% Amid Rising Inflation Risks and Middle East Tensions 
Bank of Japan's Ueda Flags Low Real Interest Rates as Key Factor in Rate Hike Timing 
FOMC increased interest rates again in March and maintained its forecast for three rate hikes in 2018. FOMC also forecasted a faster pace of hikes next year than previously forecasted. March decision was unanimous. Current Federal funds rate - 150-175 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 16th April)
- May 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 99.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, and 0.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent.
- June 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 99.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 0.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25.
- August 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 93.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 6.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
- September 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 29.6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 66 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 4.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- November 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 34.4 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 61.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 9.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 0.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- December 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 16 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 46.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 32.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, 4.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 0.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probability tightened for both near months and for far months.
- Next hike is priced in June with 99.5 percent probability, instead of 85.2 percent a week ago.
- The market brought forwarded the third hike for 2018 in September and pricing it with 70.4 percent probability compared to 51.3 percent a week ago.
- The market is pricing the fourth hike in December with 37.7 percent probability instead of 27.1 percent probability just a week ago.
FxWirePro launches Absolute Return Managed Program. For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/invest
