ECB Signals Steady Interest Rates as Fed Risks Loom Over Outlook 
RBA Deputy Governor Says November Inflation Slowdown Helpful but Still Above Target 
BOJ Rate Decision in Focus as Yen Weakness and Inflation Shape Market Outlook 
Bank of Japan Likely to Delay Rate Hike Until July as Economists Eye 1% by September 
Federal Reserve Faces Subpoena Delay Amid Investigation Into Chair Jerome Powell 
Bank of Korea Expected to Hold Interest Rates as Weak Won Limits Policy Easing 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
Bank of Canada Holds Interest Rate at 2.25% Amid Trade and Global Uncertainty 
FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 1st April)
- May 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 4.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 95.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 14.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 85.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 34.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 65.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 36.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 63.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 41.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 58.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 2.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 12.4 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 39.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 46.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have somewhat tightened but still very dovish.
- The market is pricing the possibility of a rate cut with 53.5 percent probability, compared to 58 percent last week, and 54.6 percent in the week before that.
