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Fed Hike Aftermath Series: Dollar and rate hike odds rise after Jackson Hole

After many of the FOMC policymakers indicated that a rate hike is more imminent than the market is pricing in the Jackson Hole symposium, the rate hike odds for September rose and the dollar staged a recovery. Speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen indicated said that the arguments for a rate hike have strengthened given the continued improvements in the labor market. She highlighted solid consumer spending, and recent payroll gains; “In light of the continued solid performance of the labour market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months”. She also added that the US economy was nearing the goals of Federal Reserve; maximum employment and price stability.

Federal Reserve’s vice chair, Stanley Fischer, once again, speaking to CNBC said that Janet Yellen’s remarks are in line with a possible hike in September. When he was asked whether there is a chance of an additional hike after a move in September, Mr. Fischer replied ‘yes’.

In addition to them, Cleveland Fed President, Loretta Mester, called for a further increase in interest rates as both employment and prices are moving in right direction.

On the back of these hawkish commentaries, the dollar staged a recovery against all of its major counterparts and rate hike odds improved substantially. Before the Jackson Hole symposium, hike odds for September was hovering around 30 percent but now it is above 40 percent and approaching 50 percent. If the payroll report turns out to be a blockbuster, hike odds would easily cross above coin flip.

 

 

 

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