Expect a temporary decline in the Brazil's unemployment rate in April

In Brazil, the unemployment rate is expected to post a first decline in four months, falling by two ticks to 6.2% in April. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, which rose to 5.8% in March from 5.1% in December, is expected to have declined to 5.7% in April. Almost all of the estimated decline is technical and due to the base effect, as employment is estimated to have declined by 1% yoy and the labour force is likely to have grown by 0.2% yoy. 

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 5.8% in March from a historical low of 4.5% in June last year. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in December 2013 to 6.2% in March. 

In general, the labour market continues to deteriorate along with economic growth, and there is little likelihood of a sharp turnaround in either. Societe Generale expects the unemployment rate to exceed 7% in 2016, keeping wage pressure in check and helping inflation to moderate.