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Eurozone’s trade tensions, coupled with the ongoing distress in Italy and the Brexit problem are headwinds that are expected to fade away from the spring of this year onwards, thus allowing growth to rebound after a grey winter, according to the latest research report from Berenberg.
After smooth sailing in 2017, a series of external shocks and political risks in 2018 pushed growth well below the 1.5 percent trend rate in H2 2018.
Trade tensions, crises in some emerging markets and high energy prices took their toll in 2018. Since late 2018, Brexit risks and concerns about China exacerbate the downturn in export-oriented manufacturing.
Gains in employment and real wages support consumption. However, external concerns have spilled over to domestic demand in H2 2018.
Stronger wage gains will nudge up core inflation, but only gradually. Fiscal policy provides a stimulus of 0.2 percent of GDP in 2019; monetary policy remains highly accommodative; ECB has announced more long-term funding for banks and will keep rates on hold in 2019, the report added.
Risks: Tilted to downside
• Downside: Escalation of US-China or US-EU trade tensions, potential debt crisis in Italy, hard landing in China, fallout from a no-deal hard Brexit
• Upside: External shocks fade faster than expected
