Market Roundup
• EU May PPI (MoM) -0.6%,-0.5% forecast, -2.0% previous
• EU May PPI (YoY) -5.0%, -4.8% forecast, -4.5% previous
• EU May Unemployment Rate 7.4%,7.7% forecast,7.3% previous
• Brazil May Industrial Production (MoM) 7.0%, 6.7% forecast, -18.8% previous
• Brazil May Industrial Production (YoY) -21.9%, -22.3% forecast, -27.2% previous
• US June Participation Rate 61.5%, 60.8% previous
• US June U6 Unemployment Rate18.0%, 21.2% previous
• US June Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) -1.2%, -0.7% forecast, -1.0% previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims1,427K, 1,355K forecast, 1,480K previous
• US Continuing Jobless Claims 19,290K, 19,000K forecast, 19,522K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 1,503.75K, 1,620.75K previous
• US Exports 144.51B, 151.28B previous
• US Imports 199.12B, 200.69B previous
• US June Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 5.0%, 5.3% forecast, 6.7% previous
• US May Trade -54.60B, -53.00B forecast, -49.40B previous
• US June Unemployment Rate 11.1%, 12.3% forecast,13.3% previous
• US June Manufacturing Payrolls 356K, 311K forecast, 225K previous
• Canada May Exports 34.61B, 33.60B forecast, 32.66B previous
• US June Private Nonfarm Payrolls 4,767K, 2,900K forecast, 3,094K previous
• US June Government Payrolls 33.0K, -585.0K previous
• US June Nonfarm Payrolls 4,800K, 3,000K forecast, 2,509K previous
• Canada May Imports 35.29B, 38.10B forecast, 35.91B previous
• US June Average Weekly Hours 34.5, 34.5 forecast, 34.7 previous
• Canada May Trade Balance -0.68B,-3.00B forecast, -3.25B previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 Canada June RBC Manufacturing PMI 40.6 previous
•13:45 US June ISM NY Business Conditions 19.5% previous
•13:45 US June ISM-New York Index 811.3 previous
•14:00 US Factory May Orders (MoM) 8.9% forecast, -13.0% previous
•14:00 US May Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 15.5% previous
•14:00 US May Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) -8.5% previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 78B forecast, 120B previous
Looking ahead events and other releases (GMT)
• No significant events
Fx Beat
EUR/USD: The euro gained against dollar on Thursday as string of data pointing to a recovery in manufacturing and on bets for a COVID-19 vaccine supported euro.Germany’s manufacturing sector contracted at a slower pace in June, while activity in the United States hit a 14-month high. French factory activity rebounded into growth, and activity in China’s factories offered further signs that the world’s second-largest economy may have passed the worst of the devastation caused by the pandemic.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1300 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1354 (23rd June high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1243 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1162 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as investors assessed the probability of Britain signing a trade deal with the European Union by the end of the year.This month is crucial for sterling as by the end, it should become clear with Britain will walk away with a deal or not. The pound traded last at $1.2518, up 0.3% on the day and an eight-day high.It has improved in the last couple of days, but prior to that it kept falling for nearly all of June, losing 2.7%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2522 (14 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2600 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2460 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2400 (100 DMA).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against Swiss franc on Thursday as generally solid U.S. economic data and improving European numbers diminished its appeal as a safe haven, though the currency’s outlook remained upbeat given renewed risks posed by the novel coronavirus. The greenback kicked off the third quarter with a decline against currencies that perform well in times of risk appetite such as the Swiss franc, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars. It also fell against the euro and sterling.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9447 (38.2 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9497 (July 1st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9429 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9400 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar gained against the Japanese yen on Thursday following upbeat U.S. and European economic data but renewed worries about the coronavirus blunted more aggressive risk taking. The market sentiment gained an additional boost from the news that a COVID-19 vaccine developed by German biotech firm BioNTech and U.S. pharmaceutical giant Pfizer has shown potential and was found to be well tolerated in early-stage human trials. The U.S. manufacturing activity rebounded more than expected in June, with the manufacturing activity index by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) hitting its highest in 14 months as firms and businesses resumed operations. Strong resistance can be seen at 107.53 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 107.85 (100 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 107.30 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 107.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares climbed on Thursday as encouraging economic data from across the globe and hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine lifted sentiment ahead of the crucial U.S. jobs data.
At (GMT 12:15 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading upat 1.24 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 2.28 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 2.20 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold steadied on Thursday off the previous day’s near eight-year peak as investors’ appetite for higher-risk assets like stocks improved following encouraging coronavirus vaccine trials
Spot gold was little changed at $1,770.79 per ounce by 0945 GMT, easing from a near eight-year high of $1,788.96 it hit on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,783.60 per ounce.
Oil prices rose on Thursday as a sharp drop in oil stockpiles outweighed concerns that a spike in U.S. coronavirus infections and revived lockdown measures in California could stall a recovery in fuel demand.
Brent crude futures were up 21 cents or 0.5% at $42.24 a barrel by 1114 GMT, after rising 1.8% in the previous session.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 20 cents, or 0.5%, to $40.02 a barrel, adding to a 1.4% rise on Wednesday.
Treasuries Recap
Germany’s benchmark 10-year bund yield was broadly flat on Thursday, still holding near -0.4% after better-than-expected euro zone economic data, while southern European bond yields fell, as investors’ risk appetite increased.
The 10-year Bund yield broke above -0.4% for the first time in a week on Wednesday, in its biggest daily jump in a month.Germany’s 10-year yield was at -0.4%, broadly flat on the day.
