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Europe Roundup:Pound gains as traders monitor upcoming BoE signals, European shares gains, Gold edges lower, Oil prices reverse losses, gain on concerns over supply shortages-July 4th,2022

Market Roundup

• German May Imports (MoM)  2.7%,0.9% forecast, 3.1% previous

• German May Trade Balance -1.0B, 2.7B forecast, 3.5B previous

• German May Exports (MoM) -0.5%, 0.9% forecast, 4.4% previous

•Swiss Jun CPI (MoM)   0.5%,0.3% forecast, 0.7% previous

•EU May PPI (YoY) 36.3%, 36.7% forecast, 37.2% previous

•EU Jul Sentix Investor Confidence  -26.4, -19.9 forecast,-15.8 previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 0.609% previous

•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction -0.392% previous

•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction -0.163% previous

•13:30   Canada Jun Manufacturing PMI  56.8 previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

•14:30 EU ECB's Elderson Speaks

•14:30   Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey    

•15:00   German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks

•15:00   German Buba Mauderer Speaks              

•15:00   ECB's De Guindos Speaks


EUR/USD: The euro was little changed  on Monday  against dollar as investors sought safety in the greenback amid worries about slowing global growth. The war in Ukraine and its economic fallout, particularly skyrocketing food and energy inflation, have weighed heavily on the euro, which has depreciated by more than 8% against the dollar this year. The difference between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve's response to rising inflation has also had an impact on the euro. Fears of a global recession  have kept the dollar high, although markets have lowered expectations for a US interest rate hike. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0463(5DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0537(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0375(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0308(Lower BB).

GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against the dollar on Monday  as investors await more signals from the Bank of England on its future  rate hike path this week. Last week, the British pound concluded its sharpest decline since 2016, down more than 10% against the dollar so far this year. Focus remains on the  slowing UK economy, with the BoE tasked with fighting rising inflation and avoiding a recession. The BoE has hiked rates five times since December and their next scheduled rate announcement is in August. Some market participants expect another 50 basis point hike  at the next meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2170(5DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2279 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2032 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1931(Lower BB).

 USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Monday as investors sought safety due to worries about slowing global growth. The search for safety kept the U.S. dollar near 20-year highs, though early action was light with U.S. markets on holiday. Investors awaited Non-Farm payroll data for further clues. The payrolls report on Friday is forecast to show jobs growth slowing to 270,000 in June with average earnings slowing a touch to 5.0%. At 12:30 GMT, the dollar was 0.16 percent higher versus the Swiss franc at 0.9607 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9624 (50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9717 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9578(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9531 (61.8% fib).

 USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against Japanese yen on Monday as  investors sought safety in the dollar amid concerns about slowing global growth.  . Investors are also awaiting publication of minutes from last month’s Fed meeting on Wednesday and U.S. employment data on Friday. The US Federal Reserve is expected to deliver another 75 basis points (bps)  rate hike this month. Friday's payroll report  is expected to show a slowdown in job growth  to 270k in June, with  earnings slowing an average of 5.0%. Strong resistance can be seen at 135.73 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 136.56(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 134.20(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 132.95(50%fib).

Equities Recap

European stocks rose on Monday on  oil and gas company earnings as investors waited for euro-zone inflation data after last week's redhot consumer price report  cemented the case for a rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB).

At (GMT 12:30 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.20 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.22 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.76 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold fell on Monday as prospects of higher interest rates dimmed appeal for the non-yielding asset.

Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,806.58 per ounce by 1121 GMT after touching a five-month low of $1,783.50 on Friday.U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,806.50.

Oil prices reversed losses and rose on Monday as concerns over tight supplies amid lower OPEC production, unrest in Libya and sanctions on Russia outweighed fears of a global recession.

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