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Europe Roundup: Sterling rebounds from multi-week lows, dollar trims gains against the yen as U.S. Treasury yields ease, oil prices hit 2-year peak - Monday, November 6th, 2017

Market Roundup

  • EUR/USD -0.11%, USD/JPY 0%, GBP/USD 0.27%, EUR/GBP -0.37%
     
  • DXY flat, DAX -0.22%, FTSE -0.1%, Brent 0.55%, Gold 0.18%
     
  • EZ Nov Sentix Index 34 vs 29.7, forecast 30.8
     
  • EZ Oct Markit Comp Final PMI 56 vs 55.9, forecast 55.9
     
  • EZ Oct Markit Serv Final PMI 55 vs 54.9, forecast 54.9
     
  • EZ Sept Producer Prices MM 0.6% vs 0.3%, forecast 0.4%
     
  • EZ Sept Producer Prices YY 2.9% vs 2.5%, forecast 2.8%
     
  • Investors never felt better about the German economy: Sentix
     
  • Germany Sept Industrial Orders MM 1% vs 3.6%, forecast -1.5%, revised 4.1%
     
  • Germany Oct Markit Services PMI 54.7 vs 55.2, forecast 55.2
     
  • Germany Oct Markit Comp Final PMI 56.6 vs 56.9, forecast 56.9
     
  • Only 1 in 7 Catalans see dispute with Madrid ending in independence - poll
     
  • Oil rises to highest since mid-2015 on Saudi purge, tighter markets

Economic Data Ahead

  • (1000 ET/1500 GMT) The Richard Ivey School of Business releases Canada's seasonally adjusted Ivey Purchasing Managers Index for the month of October. The index posted a reading of 59.6 in the prior month.
     
  • (1300 ET/1800 GMT) The Federal Reserve releases its Loan Officer Survey.
     
  • (1730 ET/ 2330 GMT) The Australian Industry Group (AiG) releases its Performance of Construction Index for the month of October. The index stood at 54.7 in the month of September.
     

Key Events Ahead

  • (0800 ET/1300 GMT) Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech.
     
  • (1045 ET/1545 GMT) FedTrade Operation 30-year Ginnie Mae (max $1.225 bn)
     
  • (1210 ET/1710 GMT)) New York Fed President William Dudley speaks on "Lessons From the Financial Crisis" before the Economic Club of New York.

FX Beat

DXY: The dollar index rallied to a 1-week high on speculation that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in December. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded flat at 94.95, having touched a high of 95.08 earlier, its highest since Oct. 27. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at 22.81 (Neutral) by 1100 GMT.

EUR/USD: The euro declined to a fresh 1-week low after data showed final Composite PMI for Eurozone decelerated to 56.0 down from 56.7 in September. The European currency traded flat at 1.1605, having touched a low of 1.1588 earlier, its lowest since Oct. 27. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at -75.32 (Slightly Bearish) by 1100 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1636 (78.6% retracement of 1.1837 and 1.1674), a break above targets 1.1676 (10-DMA). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1574 (Oct. 27 Low), a break below could drag it lower 1.1540.

USD/JPY: The dollar trimmed gains after rising to an 8-month high earlier in the day as last week's U.S. jobs data failed to impress London traders. The major was trading flat at 114.04, having hit a high of 114.73, its highest since Mar. 15. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at 80.28 (Slightly Bullish) by 1100 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 114.70, a break above targets 115.00. On the downside, support is seen at 113.77 (10-DMA), a break below could take it near 113.11 (21-DMA).

GBP/USD: Sterling rose above the 1.3100 handle after three consecutive weeks of losses, however, signs of instability in Britain's governing Conservative party and uncertainty around Brexit negotiations limited the upside in the British pound. The major traded 0.2 percent up at 1.3105, having hit a low of 1.3039 the prior session, its lowest since Oct. 6. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at -79.08 (Slightly Bearish) by 1100 GMT.  Immediate resistance is located at 1.3137, a break above could take it near 1.3185 (21-DMA). On the downside, support is seen at 1.3039 (Previous Session Low), a break below targets 1.2968. Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.3 percent down at 88.46 pence, having hit a low of 89.38 pence on Thursday, its lowest since Oct. 26.

USD/CHF: The Swiss franc rose, extending previous session gains, as the greenback gained on views the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates next month and tighten further in 2018. The major trades 0.1 percent up at 1.0013, having touched a high of 1.0037 last month, it’s highest since May. 12. FxWirePro's Hourly Swiss Franc Strength Index stood at 76.96 (Slightly Bullish) by 1100 GMT. The near-term support stands at 0.9955 (10- DMA) and any break below will drag the pair to next level till 0.9900/0.9860. The major resistance is around 1.0040 and any break above will take it to next level till 1.0100.

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar gained, reversing some of its previous session losses, as investors awaited the country's central bank policy meeting this week, where it is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.50 percent as inflation and growth remain below the RBA target range. The Aussie trades 0.1 percent up at 0.7662 having hit a high of 0.7729 on Thursday; it’s highest since Oct. 25. FxWirePro's Hourly Aussie Strength Index stood at -23.01 (Neutral) by 1100 GMT. Immediate support is seen at 0.7624 (Oct. 27 Low), a break below targets 0.7600. On the upside, resistance is located at 0.7676 (5-DMA), a break above could take it near 0.7700.

Equities Recap

European shares edged lower, weighed down by disappointing earnings, while the greenback advanced to a 1-week peak on speculation that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in December.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index slumped 0.1 percent to 395.75 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index declined 0.05 percent to 1,557.59 points.

Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.2 percent lower at 7,547.24 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 eased 0.3 percent to 20,414.23 points.

Germany's DAX fell 0.2 percent at 13,446.02 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.3 percent down at 5,504.19 points.

Commodities Recap

Crude oil prices jumped to its highest in over two years as markets tightened, while Saudi Arabia's crown prince cemented his power over the weekend through an anti-corruption crackdown. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.5 percent up at $62.40 per barrel by 1037 GMT, having hit a high of $62.85, its highest since July 2015. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.4 percent up at $55.89 a barrel, after rising as high as $56.26, its highest since Jul. 2015.

Gold prices held gains near a one-week low touched in the previous session, as the dollar firmed after largely upbeat U.S. economic data reinforced the prospects of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve next month. Spot gold rose 0.2 percent at $1,271.59 per ounce as of 1039 GMT, having touched a one-week low of $1,265.43 on Friday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were nearly unchanged at $1,269.

Treasuries Recap

The U.S. Treasuries rose as investors wait to watch the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Dudley’s speech, scheduled for later in the day. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury slumped 2 basis points to 2.32 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields slid nearly 1-1/2 basis points to 2.81 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year note also 1-1/2 basis points lower at 1.61 percent.

The German bunds surged after the country’s composite as well as services PMI disappointed during the month of October. However, the upside was limited by the rise in Eurozone composite PMI for the same period. The German 10-year bond yields, which move inversely to its price, jumped 2-1/2 basis points to 0.34 percent, the yield on 30-year note also plunged 2-1/2 basis points to 1.05 percent while the yield on short-term 2-year traded 1 basis point lower at -0.76 percent.

The New Zealand bonds sharply jumped at the time of closing Monday as investors poured into safe-haven assets ahead of the GlobalDairyTrade (GDT) price auction, scheduled to be held on November 7. At the time of closing, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, slumped 9-1/2 basis points to 2.78percent, the yield on the 20-year note plunged 11-1/2 basis points to 3.29 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year traded 2-1/2 basis points lower at 1.96 percent.

The Japanese government bonds gained as Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda spoke on its recommitment to the ultra-loose monetary policy until 2 percent inflation is achieved. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, fell 2-1/2 basis points to 0.033 percent, the yield on long-term 30-year also slipped 2-1/2 basis point to 0.821 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year decline 2 basis points to -0.176 percent.

The Australian bonds traded narrowly mixed as investors awaited the Reserve of Australia monetary policy meeting scheduled to be held on Tuesday at 03:30 GMT. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, traded flat at 2.587 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year note rose 1/2 basis point to 3.346 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year dipped nearly 1 basis point to 1.770 percent.

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