Market Roundup
- United Kingdom Jan 2019 PSNCR, gbp decrease to -25.434 gbp vs previous 21.551 gbp (revised from 21.278 gbp)
- United Kingdom Jan 2019 PSNB, gbp decrease to -15.759 gbp (forecast -11.05 gbp) vs previous 2.142 gbp (revised from 2.112 gbp)
- United Kingdom Jan 2019 PSNB ex banks gbp decrease to -14.895 gbp (forecast -10.05 gbp) vs previous 3.006 gbp (revised from 2.976 gbp)
- Italy Jan 2019 consumer prices final yy stays flat at 0.9 % (forecast 0.9 %) vs previous 0.9 %
- Italy Jan 2019 consumer prices final mm stays flat at 0.1 % vs previous 0.1 %
- Italy Jan 2019 CPI (eu norm) final yy stays flat at 0.9 % (forecast 0.9 %) vs previous 0.9 %
- Italy Jan 2019 CPI (eu norm) final mm stays flat at -1.7 % (forecast -1.7 %) vs previous -1.7 %
- Eurozone Feb 2019 Markit manufacturing flash PMI decrease to 49.2 diff.idx (forecast 50.3 diff.idx) vs previous 50.5 diff.idx
- Eurozone Feb 2019 Markit service flash PMI increase to 52.3 diff.idx (forecast 51.4 diff.idx) vs previous 51.2 diff.idx
- Eurozone Feb 2019 Markit composite flash PMI increase to 51.4 diff.idx (forecast 51.1 diff.idx) vs previous 51 diff.idx
- Germany Feb 2019 Markit service flash PMI increase to 55.1 diff.idx (forecast 52.9 diff.idx) vs previous 53 diff.idx
- Germany Feb 2019 Markit manufacturing flash PMI decrease to 47.6 diff.idx (forecast 49.7 diff.idx) vs previous 49.7 diff.idx
- Germany Feb 2019 Markit composite flash PMI increase to 52.7 diff.idx (forecast 52 diff.idx) vs previous 52.1 diff.idx
- France Feb 2019 Markit composite flash PMI increase to 49.9 diff.idx (forecast 49 diff.idx) vs previous 48.2 diff.idx
- France Feb 2019 Markit service flash PMI increase to 49.8 diff.idx (forecast 48.7 diff.idx) vs previous 47.8 diff.idx
- France Feb 2019 Markit manufacturing flash PMI increase to 51.4 diff.idx (forecast 51 diff.idx) vs previous 51.2 diff.idx
- Switzerland Jan 2019 M3 increase to 1070682 chf vs previous 1062863 chf (revised from 1062575 chf)
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits is likely to have decreased by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 239,000 for the week ended Feb. 16, while continuing claims for the week ended Feb. 8 is expected to decline to 1.740 million from a previous reading of 1.773 million.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The U.S. durable goods orders are expected to have increased 1.5 percent in December after rising 0.7 percent in November.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing survey is likely to show that business activity decreased to 14.0 in February from 17.0 in January.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) Statistics Canada will release its wholesale trade figures for the month of December. The indicator is likely to have decreased by 0.1 percent, after falling 1.0 percent in November.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The Statistics Canada releases employment report for January. The economy probably shed 13,000 jobs in the previous month.
- (0945 ET/1445 GMT) Financial firm Markit releases U.S. preliminary Manufacturing PMI for the month of February. The index is likely edged down to 54.7 after posted a final reading of 54.9 in the previous month.
- (0945 ET/1445 GMT) Markit Economics will release preliminary U.S. composite PMI for the month of February. The index posted a final reading of 54.4 in the prior month.
- (0945 ET/1445 GMT) Financial firm Markit Economics is likely to report that preliminary U.S. service PMI business activity index rose to 54.3 in February after printing a final reading of 54.2 in January.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) National Association of Realtors is likely to report that U.S. existing home sales rose 0.8 percent to an annual rate of 500,000 million units in January.
- (1030 ET/1530 GMT) The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports its Natural Gas Storage for the week ending February 15.
- (1100 ET/1600 GMT) The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports its Crude Oil Stocks for the week ending February 15.
Key Events Ahead
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) ECB chief economist Peter Praet participates in a panel discussion in Brussels
- (0850 ET/1350 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy in Atlanta
- (1250 ET/1750 GMT) Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will give a speech and news conference in Montreal.
- (1730 ET/2230 GMT) Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Philip Lowe's Speech.
FX Beat
DXY: The dollar index consolidated within narrow ranges, after the Federal Reserve affirmed it would be patient on further interest rate rises and that the economy remained fundamentally strong. The greenback against a basket of currencies trades flat at 96.50, having touched a low of 96.29 on Wednesday, its lowest since February 6. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at 31.91 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT.
EUR/USD: The euro eased after data showed Eurozone factory output unexpectedly plunged in January as activity in Germany declined again amid trade tensions and struggles in the auto sector. The European currency traded 0.05 percent down at 1.1338, having touched a high of 1.1371 on Wednesday, its highest since Feb. 6. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at -57.36 (Bearish) by 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1368 (Feb.7 High), a break above targets 1.1394 (Jan. 23 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1314 (5-DMA), a break below could drag it till 1.1289 (Feb. 18 Low).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined after rising for three consecutive sessions, as investors remained cautious on how talks between China and the United States would end a trade dispute. The major was trading 0.1 percent down at 110.70, having hit a high of 110.95 on Wednesday, its highest since February 14. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at -13.60 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. unemployment benefit claims, durable goods, and Markit flash PMI's. Immediate resistance is located at 111.05 (Feb. 13 Low), a break above targets 111.40 (Dec. 26 Low). On the downside, support is seen at 110.25 (Feb.15 Low), a break below could take it lower at 109.60 (Feb. 7 Low).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose, reversing most of its previous session losses, after Britain's public finances showed a record surplus last month due to a surge in income tax payments. Moreover, UK finance minister Hammond comments, citing that British parliament could vote on a revised Brexit deal next week cheered the British pound bulls. The major traded 0.2 percent up at 1.3071, having hit a high of 1.3109 on Wednesday; it’s highest since February 1. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at 87.51 (Slightly Bullish) 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.3103 (Feb. 4 High), a break above could take it near 1.3160 (January 31 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.2998 (21-DMA), a break below targets 1.2943 (5-DMA). Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.1 percent up at 86.79 pence, having hit a high of 86.66 earlier, it’s highest since Jan. 29.
USD/CHF: The Swiss franc eased, drifting away from an over 1-week peak hit in the prior session, as the greenback surged after minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting revived expectations for a possible U.S. rate hike this year. The major trades flat at 1.0013, having touched a low of 0.9981 on Wednesday; it’s lowest since February 11. FxWirePro's Hourly Swiss Franc Strength Index stood at 48.96 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. On the higher side, near-term resistance is around 1.0054 (February 18 High) and any break above will take the pair to next level till 1.0111 (November 12 High). The near-term support is around 0.9961 (January 22 Low), and any close below that level will drag it till 0.9889 (December 7 Low).
Equities Recap
European shares tumbled, weighed down by a series of downbeat corporate earnings updates and data that showed euro zone factory output unexpectedly plunged last month.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index declined 0.3 percent at 371.07 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index fell 0.2 percent to 1,458.45 points.
Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.7 percent down at 7,178.08 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 gained 0.05 to 19,203.81 points.
Germany's DAX rose 0.1 percent at 11,414.42 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.1 percent lower at 5,190.31 points
Commodities Recap
Crude oil prices eased, hovering away from 2019 highs, weighed down by slowing growth in the global economy, however, OPEC-led supply cuts and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran capped downside. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.3 percent down at $66.94 per barrel by 1029 GMT, having hit a high of $67.36 on Wednesday, its highest since November 19. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.05 percent lower at $57.20 a barrel, after rising as high as $57.57 on Wednesday, its highest since the November 16.
Gold prices eased, retreating from a 10-month peak touched in the previous session as the dollar gained after minutes from the last U.S. Federal Reserve meeting rekindled expectations of another rate hike this year. Spot gold was trading 0.3 percent down at $1,334.36 per ounce as of 1031 GMT, having touched a high of $1,346.61 per ounce on Wednesday, its highest level since April 20. U.S. gold futures were down 0.5 percent at $1,341.80 an ounce.
Treasuries Recap
The Euro zone government bond yields hovered near recent lows, with the German 10-year bond yields at 0.10 percent, close to a recent 27-month low of 0.077 percent, while the Italian bond yields were 3 to 4 basis points higher across the curve.
The Longer-dated Japanese government bond prices rose, with the 30-year JGB yield down 1 basis point at 0.570 percent, its lowest since December 2016. The 20-year yield slipped half a basis point to 0.400 percent after touching 0.395 percent, a low not seen since November 2016. The benchmark 10-year yield stood flat at minus 0.040 percent.
The Australian government bond futures seesawed, with the three-year bond contract adding 3 ticks to 98.385, while the 10-year contract rose 4 ticks to 97.9350.
The New Zealand government bonds were well bid, with yields down as much as 4 basis points.
