Market Roundup
•Sweden Services PMI (MoM) (Oct) 52.9 , 48.9 previous
•French Government Budget Balance (Sep) -173.8B, -171.9B previous
• French Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) -0.9%, -0.5% forecast, 1.1% previous
•Spanish Unemployment Change (Oct) 26.5K, 3.2K previous
•UK Car Registration (YoY) (Oct) -6.0%, 1.0% previous
•UK Composite PMI (Oct) 51.8 ,51.7 forecast, 52.6 previous
•UK Services PMI (Oct) 52.0 ,51.8 forecast, 52.4 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:15 Canada Reserve Assets Total (Oct) 128.1B previous
•13:30 US Exports (Sep) 271.80B previous
•13:30 US Imports (Sep) 342.20B previous
•13:30 US Trade Balance (Sep) -83.80B forecast, -70.40B previous
•13:30 Canada Exports (Sep) 64.31B previous
•13:30 Canada Imports (Sep) 65.41B previous
•13:30 Canada Trade Balance (Sep) -0.90B forecast, -1.10B previous
•13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 5.6% previous
•14:00 New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index -0.3% previous
•14:00 USD Milk Auctions 3,852.0 previous
•14:45 USD S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) 54.3 forecast, 54.0 previous
•14:45 USD Services PMI (Oct) 55.3 forecast, 55.2 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Oct) 59.9 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Oct) 48.1 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Oct) 59.4 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 53.8 forecast, 54.9 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Oct) 59.4 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•14:30 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•18:30 Canada BOC Summary of Deliberations
• 18:30 EU ECB's Schnabel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Tuesday as investor’s squared position amid uncertainty around the U.S. presidential election. One of the most unusual elections in modern U.S. history could yield starkly different implications for tax and trade policy as well as for U.S. institutions depending on whether Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris prevails.The results could rattle assets around the world and lead to broad financial fallout, including on the outlook for U.S. debt, the strength of the dollar.Investors are wary of any unclear or contested result that could fuel volatility stemming from any lasting uncertainty about the political backdrop. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0914(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0953(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0871(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0858 (5SMA).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Tuesday as traders awaited the outcome of a U.S. election that has remained too close to call for weeks, while also keeping an eye on the Bank of England's interest rate decision later in the week. Recent opinion polls have shown Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump virtually neck and neck, meaning the outcome might not be clear for days, or even weeks after voting ends. The BoE is expected to deliver a quarter-point cut to interest rates on Thursday, much the same as the U.S. Federal Reserve, which delivers its own policy decision the same day.But markets reflect a belief among traders that UK rates will fall more slowly than those in the United States or the euro zone in the coming months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3029(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2953(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 12860(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates unchanged at 4.35%, as expected. The central bank emphasized that it would maintain a tight monetary policy, reinforcing market expectations that no near-term rate cuts are likely. The RBA's decision marked one year since the last rate hike and included a reminder that further tightening could still be on the table if needed. Markets had already priced in little chance of a rate cut this week, with only a 20% likelihood of a move at the RBA’s final meeting of the year on December 10. However, there is a 40% chance of a quarter point rate cut in February, which increases to 80% by April. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6623 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6665(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6579 (5SMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6559(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against the yen as investors cautious awaited the outcome of the high-stakes U.S. presidential election. The U.S. election kept investors on edge as opinion polls showed Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris virtually tied in their bid to win the White House. Election day comes to a close following an intensely acrimonious campaign, marked by assassination attempts on former President Donald Trump and the surprising withdrawal of President Joe Biden in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris. Markets are on edge about how Trump's protectionist trade policies in particular could stoke inflation and hit exports in the world's biggest consumer market with bonds and the dollar expected to move on the outcome of the election. Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.72(5SMA) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.47(23.6 %fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.48(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 151.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Europe's STOXX 600 swung between gains and losses on Tuesday as investors assessed a series of disappointing earnings reports, including from Denmark's Vestas and the UK's Schroders. At the same time, attention remained fixed on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.
At (GMT 12:16),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.02percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.07 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.15 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held steady on Tuesday as market participants braced for the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, with opinion polls suggesting a neck-and-neck race between Democrat candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump.
Spot gold was little changed at $2,738.83 per ounce by 1045 GMT, having hit a record high of $2,790.15 last week. U.S. gold futures edged up 0.1% to $2,748.20.
Oil prices traded in a narrow range on Tuesday ahead of what is expected to be an exceptionally close U.S. presidential election, after rising more than 2% in the previous session as OPEC+ delayed plans to hike production in December.
Brent crude futures ticked up 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $75.24 a barrel by 0841 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $71.65 a barrel, up 18 cents, or 0.3%.
