Market Roundup
• German Unemployment Rate (May): 6.3%, 6.4% forecast, 6.4% previous.
•German Unemployment Change (May): -12K, 11K forecast, 19K previous.
•German Unemployment (May): 2.987M, 2.998M previous.
•German Unemployment n.s.a. (May): 2.950M, 3.008M previous.
•German CPI (YoY) (May): 2.6%, 2.9% previous.
•German CPI (MoM) (May): -0.3%, 0.6% previous.
•German CPI (MoM) (May): -0.2%, 0.5% previous.
•German CPI (YoY) (May): 2.4%, 2.6% previous.
•German CPI (YoY) (May): 2.4%, 2.7% previous.
•German CPI (YoY) (May): 2.8%, 2.9% previous.
•German CPI (MoM) (May): -0.1%, 0.6% previous.
•German CPI (MoM) (May): -0.2%, 0.4% previous.
•German CPI (YoY): 2.6%, 2.8% previous.
•German CPI (YoY) (May): 2.8%, 2.9% previous.
•German CPI (MoM) (May): -0.1%, 0.6% previous.
•Greek Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar): 3.0%, 4.4% previous.
•Greek PPI (YoY) (Apr): 12.8%, 8.3% previous.
•Greek Unemployment Rate (Apr): 9.5%, 10.4% previous.
•Italian HICP (MoM) (May): 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 1.6% previous.
•Italian CPI (YoY) (May): 3.2%, 3.2% forecast, 2.7% previous.
•Italian HICP (YoY) (May): 3.3%, 3.2% forecast, 2.8% previous.
•Italian CPI (MoM) (May): 0.4%, 0.1% forecast, 1.1% previous.
•Canadian GDP (QoQ) (Q1): 0.0%, -0.2% previous.
•Canadian GDP (YoY) (Q1): -0.05%, 0.70% previous.
•Canadian GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q1): -0.1%, 1.5% forecast, -1.0% previous.
•Canadian GDP (MoM) (Mar): -0.1%, 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•U.S. Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Apr): 0.6%, 0.6% previous.
•U.S. Goods Trade Balance (Apr): -82.40B, -86.70B forecast, -85.30B previous.
•Canadian GDP Implicit Price (QoQ) (Q1): 1.10%, 1.00% previous.
•U.S. Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Apr): 0.5%, 0.6% forecast, 1.5% previous.
•Canadian GDP (MoM) (Apr): 0.4%, -0.1% previous.
•U.S. Chicago PMI (May): 62.7, 50.6 forecast, 49.2 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 425 previous.
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 558 previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro recovered ground against the dollar on Friday as markets turned hopeful that an agreement to extend the regional ceasefire and resume Hormuz shipping routes could be finalised. The deal, still pending Trump's approval, would extend the truce for another 60 days and allow traffic to flow through the strategic waterway while negotiators tackle difficult issues such as Iran's nuclear program. Prices of crude oil, a key resource for energy-deficient Europe, slipped and were on track for their first weekly drop in two months.Elevated energy prices have begun feeding through to consumers, as a preliminary estimate from France showed inflation accelerated to a 27-month high in May. Inflation readings from Germany are due later in the day.European Central Bank policymakers such as Isabel Schnabel have flagged the need for an interest rate hike next month, while investors are pricing in borrowing costs to rise by a total of 50 basis points by year-end. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1648(May 25th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1693(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1577(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1561(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher against the dollar on Friday as uncertainty surrounding a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement kept investors cautious, while Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey indicated there was no immediate need to raise interest rates.Reports suggested the U.S. and Iran were considering extending their ceasefire and easing shipping restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz, although the agreement still requires approval from U.S. President Donald Trump.Before the conflict, markets had expected the Bank of England to cut interest rates at least twice this year as inflation moved closer to target. However, since late February, fears that rising energy prices could fuel inflation again have prompted investors to scale back rate-cut expectations and instead price in potential tightening.Money markets now imply around 32 basis points of tightening this year. Sterling was last down 0.2% at $1.3410, near the middle of the $1.33 to $1.35 range it has traded in over the past two weeks. It was down 0.1% for the week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3427(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3489(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3353(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3278(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped on Friday as Australian dollar was supported by buoyant risk appetite on Iran deal hopes. The United States and Iran had agreed to extend their ceasefire and ease shipping restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz, although the deal still awaits approval from U.S. President Donald Trump, while Iranian state media said negotiations had not yet been finalised.Oil prices fell more than 1% on Friday and were set for their sharpest weekly decline since early April, helping ease concerns over inflationary pressure from higher energy costs linked to the Iran conflict.Meanwhile, U.S. inflation rose at its fastest pace in three years in April, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates unchanged well into next year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7178(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7189(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7104(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7088(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Friday as investors digested the release of softer Tokyo consumer inflation figures. Annual core inflation in Tokyo remained below the BOJ’s 2% target for a fourth straight month in May, as fuel and tuition subsidies offset higher raw material costs linked to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Tokyo core CPI, which excludes fresh food prices, rose 1.3% year-on-year in May, slowing from 1.5% in April and missing market forecasts of a 1.5% increase, marking a sixth straight month of easing inflation. Separate data showed Japan’s factory output rebounded in April, as strong AI-related demand offset weakness in sectors affected by the Middle East conflict, indicating the economy was coping with higher fuel costs for now. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.49(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.67(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.27(April 16th low ).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Friday and were on track to end May higher, as investors hoped that a proposed deal to extend the Middle East ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be finalised.
At GMT (14:10) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.24 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.01 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.17 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose for a second straight session on Friday after news the U.S. and Iran may have agreed to extend their ceasefire, though prices were still headed for a monthly decline as inflation concerns and expectations of higher interest rates weighed.
Spot gold was up 0.6% to $4,519.64 per ounce at 8:52 a.m. EDT (1252 GMT). Prices fell to a two-month low of $4,365.76 on Thursday, but closed higher.U.S. gold futures for August delivery rose 0.4% to $4,550.00.
Oil futures fell 2% on Friday and were on track for their steepest weekly decline since early April after reports that the U.S. and Iran had reached agreement on a potential ceasefire extension.
Brent crude futures for July , which expire later on Friday, were down $1.89, or 2%, at $91.82 a barrel by 1309 GMT. The more active August contract was down $1.89, or 2%, at $90.81. WTI U.S. oil futures were down $1.70, or 1.9%, at $87.20.
