Market Roundup
- EUR/USD 0.38%, USD/JPY -0.64%, GBP/USD 0.02%, EUR/GBP 0.32%
- DXY -0.32%, DAX -1.33%, FTSE -0.6%, Brent -1.32%, Gold 0.39%
- Fed's Evans says will go into December meeting with open mind
- Fed should signal tolerance for higher U.S. inflation - Evans
- Waiting too long to stop stimulus could be disruptive - ECB's Hansson
- ECB's rate guidance to gain prominence in stimulus - Praet
- Global forex code bans 'last look' trading tactic
- Great Britain Sept ILO Unemployment Rate 4.3% vs 4.3%, forecast 4.3%
- Great Britain Oct Claimant Count Unemployment SA 1.1k vs 1.7k, forecast 2.3k, revised 2.6k
- Great Britain Sept Avg Wk Earnings 3M YY 2.2% vs 2.2%, forecast 2.1%. revised 2.3%
- Great Britain Sept Avg Earnings (Ex-bonus) 2.2% vs 2.1%, forecast 2.2%, revised 2.2%
- EZ Sept Eurostat Trade NSA, Eur 26.4B vs 16.1B
- China says Venezuela can 'appropriately' handle debt load
- Oil prices slide after IEA casts doubt over demand outlook
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is expected to report that New York State manufacturing activity index fell to 26 in November after rising 30.2 in October.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to report that retail sales remained unchanged in October after advancing 1.6 percent in September. While excluding autos, retail sales are likely to have gained 0.2 percent, after surging 1.0 percent in the previous month.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The U.S. consumer price index likely increased 0.1 percent in October after gaining 0.5 percent in September, while in the 12 months through October, the CPI is expected to have risen 2.0 percent. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI probably rose 0.2 percent, compared with a 0.1 percent increase in the previous month.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to report that business inventories remained unchanged in September after rising 0.7 percent in August.
- (1030 ET/1530 GMT) The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports its Crude Oil Stocks for the week ending November 10.
- (1850 ET/2350 GMT) Japan's Ministry of Finance will report foreign bond investment for the week ending November 10.
- (1850 ET/2350 GMT) Japan's Ministry of Finance reports foreign investment in domestic stocks for the week ending November 10.
Key Events Ahead
- (0800 ET/1300 GMT) Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent is due to deliver a lecture at a London School of Economics event billed as "Brexit and Interest Rates".
- (1145 ET/1645 GMT) FedTrade Operation 30-year Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac (max $1.905 bn)
- (1610 ET/2110 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren will discuss the state of the U.S. economy at Northeastern University's Economic Policy Forum in Boston.
- (1845 ET/2345 GMT) The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases text of Executive Vice President (Legal Group) Michael Held's speech on, "The Financial Crisis: Perspectives from a Decade On," delivered before a closed joint meeting of the Administrative and Banking Law Committee organized by the New York City Bar Association.
- N/A British Prime Minister Theresa May and finance minister Philip Hammond will co-host an industry roundtable before a reception at Downing Street for some of the UK's top start-up entrepreneurs and innovators.
- (1900 ET/0000 GMT) Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins will give a speech in New York on monetary policy under uncertainty.
FX Beat
DXY: The dollar index declined to a 4-week trough as the yields on the U.S. Treasuries plummeted, while investors awaited the release of October consumer inflation data from the United States later in the day that could provide clues on the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening policy. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded 0.3 percent down at 93.51, having touched a low of 93.44, its lowest since Oct. 20. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at -29.74 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT.
EUR/USD: The euro rallied to a 4-week high as the dollar came under renewed selling pressure across the board after the U.S. Treasury yields ran through fresh supply. The European currency traded 0.4 percent up at 1.1843, having touched a high of 1.1853 earlier; its highest since Oct. 20. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at 101.51 (Highly Bullish) by 1000 GMT. The near-term resistance is around 1.1825 and any break above will take the pair to next level till 1.1880 (Oct 12th high)/ 1.19280/ .1200. On the lower side, major support is around 1.1700 and any break below will drag it to next level till 1.1660/1.1600/1.1553 (Nov 7th, 2017 low).
USD/JPY: The dollar slumped to a 4-week low as a decline in U.S. Treasury bond yields and a fresh wave of global risk aversion trade underpinned the bid tone around the safe-haven Japanese yen. The major was trading 0.6 percent down at 112.73, having hit a low of 112.65 earlier, its lowest since Oct. 20. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at 35.13 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. On the lower side, any close below 112.95 confirms minor weakness, a decline till 112.22 (233- day MA)/111.60 (55- day EMA)/111.13 likely. Any convincing close above 114.50 (161.8% fib) confirms minor bullishness, a jump till 116 likely.
GBP/USD: Sterling eased after data showed the number of people in work in Britain fell by the most in more than two years in the three months to September, indicating that a Brexit slowdown may be weighing on the economy's strong run of job creation. The major traded 0.5 percent down at 1.3156, having hit a low of 1.3061 on Monday, its lowest since Nov. 6. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at -72.72 (Bearish) by 1000 GMT. Any daily close above 1.3230 (61.8% retracement of 1.3320 and 1.30390) will take the pair to next level till 1.3300/1.3380. On the lower side, near-term support is around 1.31300 and any break below will drag the pair to next level till 1.3100/ 1.3060/ 1.3027. Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.4 percent down at 89.97 pence, having hit a low of 90.14 pence earlier in the day, its lowest since Oct. 20.
USD/CHF: The Swiss franc advanced to a 3-week high as declining U.S. Treasury bond yields further reinforced global flight to safety and added to the already weaker sentiment around the greenback. The major trades 0.4 percent down at 0.9857, having touched a low of 0.9853 earlier, it’s lowest since Oct. 24. FxWirePro's Hourly Swiss Franc Strength Index stood at 71.02 (Bullish) by 1000 GMT. The near-term support is around 0.9850 (233- day MA) and any break below will drag the pair to next level till 0.9805 (38.2% retracement of 0.9420 and 1.00390)/0.9770. The major resistance is around 0.9930 (20- day MA) and any break above will take it to next level till 0.9980/1.000/1.0040.
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar tumbled to 4-month lows as the release of wage growth data from Australia fell short of forecast, growing 0.5 percent in the third quarter. The Aussie trades 0.3 percent down at 0.7603, having hit a low of 0.7576 earlier; it’s lowest since Jul. 05. FxWirePro's Hourly Aussie Strength Index stood at -106.57 (Highly Bearish) by 1000 GMT. On the lower side, the pair has broken 0.7600 and any close below targets 0.7550/0.7500. The near-term resistance is around 0.7641 (20- 4H MA) and any break above targets 0.7680/0.7730/0.7780.
Equities Recap
European shares tumbled to an 8-week low, weighed down by a fall in commodity stocks and continued profit-taking, while greenback declined to a 4-week trough as the U.S. Treasury yields ran through fresh supply.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index declined 0.8 percent to 380.85 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index slumped 0.8 percent to 1,499.02 points.
Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.4 percent lower at 7,384.02 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 declined 0.5 percent to 19,758.86 points.
Germany's DAX fell 0.9 percent at 12,910.02 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.5 percent down at 5,289.52 points.
Commodities Recap
Crude oil prices rebounded after falling to a more than 1-week low in the previous session on a report that the International Energy Agency cast doubts over the past few months' narrative of tightening fuel markets. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.3 percent up at $61.55 per barrel by 1001 GMT, having hit a low of $61.19 the day before, its lowest since Nov. 3. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.3 percent up at $55.16 a barrel, after falling as low as $54.80 on Tuesday, its lowest since Nov. 3.
Gold prices rallied as the greenback slipped to a 4-week low ahead of the release of U.S. October consumer inflation data later in the day that could provide hints on the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening policy. Spot gold was 0.5 percent up at $1,285.41 per ounce at 1004GMT, having touched a low of $1,269.94 the day before, its lowest since Nov. 6. U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 0.1 percent to $1,284.50.
Treasuries Recap
The U.S. Treasuries climbed as investors wait to watch the country’s consumer price-led inflation index (CPI) for the month of October, scheduled to be released today by 10:00GMT. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasuries plummeted 4 basis points to 2.34 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields also nose-dived nearly 4 basis points to 2.80 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year note traded 2-1/2 basis points lower at 1.66 percent.
The UK gilts remained surged as investors have largely shrugged-off the upbeat reading of the country’s employment report for the month of September. The UK 10-year bond yields, which move inversely to its price, slumped 4 basis points to 1.28 percent, the yield on 30-year note plunged nearly 3-1/2 basis points to 1.85 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year traded 1 basis point lower at 0.47 percent.
The German bunds jumped as investors wait to watch the Eurozone’s consumer price-led inflation index (CPI) for the month of October, scheduled to be released on November 16 by 10:00GMT. The German 10-year bond yields, which move inversely to its price, slumped 3 basis points to 0.36 percent, the yield on 30-year note also plunged 3 basis points to 1.25 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year traded 1 basis point lower at -0.75 percent.
The New Zealand government bonds closed higher following rise in prices of Australian debt, which pushed the yields over 5 basis points across the curve. At the time of closing, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, fell 6-1/2 basis points to 2.905 percent, the yield on 20-year note also slid 5 basis points to 3.480 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year ended 4 basis points lower at 2.03 percent.
The Japanese government bonds rose slightly after gross domestic product (GDP) growth slows in the third-quarter, coupled with heavy bonds buying from the Bank of Japan in its daily market operations. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, fell 1 basis point to 0.045 percent, the yield on long-term 40-year declined nearly 1 basis point to 0.987 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year declined 1 basis point to -0.184 percent.
The Australian government bonds gained after Australian wage growth has come in well below expectations for the second straight month. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, fell 6 basis points to 2.604 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year note also slid 6 basis points to 3.370 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year declined 5-1/2 basis points to 1.795 percent.
