Market Roundup
- EUR/USD -0.1%, USD/JPY 0.14%, GBP/USD -0.07%, EUR/GBP -0.09%
- DXY 0.12%, DAX 0.42%, FTSE 0.46%, Brent 0.44%, Gold 0.04%
- May puts stripped-down Brexit deal to 'last chance' vote in parliament
- U.S., China hold 'constructive' trade talks in Beijing
- ECB pursuing 2 pct inflation goal with all available tools - Visco
- Great Britain Q4 GDP QQ, 0.2%, 0.2% f'cast, 0.2% prev
- Great Britain Q4 GDP YY, 1.4%, 1.3% f'cast, 1.3% prev
- Great Britain Q4 Business invest YY, -2.5%, 3.7% prev
- Great Britain Mar GfK Consumer Confidence, -13, -14 f'cast, -13 prev
- Great Britain Mar Nationwide house price YY, 0.7%, 0.6% f'cast, 0.4% prev
- Germany Feb Import Prices YY, 1.6%, 1.8% f'cast, 0.8% prev
- Germany Feb Retail Sales YY Real, 4.7%, 2.8% f'cast, 2.6% prev, 3.1% r'vsd
- Germany Mar Unemployment Chg SA, -7k, -10k f'cast, -21k prev, -20k r'vsd
- Germany Mar Unemployment Rate SA, 4.9%, 4.9% f'cast, 5.0% prev
- France Mar CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY, 1.3%, 1.4% f'cast, 1.6% prev
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The U.S. Commerce Department releases personal income figures for January, which is expected to rise 0.3 percent, after falling 0.5 percent in December.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The U.S. Commerce Department releases the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for the month of January. The index rose at an annualized rate of 1.7 percent in the prior month, while core PCE is likely to have increased 0.2 percent after staying unchanged in the previous month.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The U.S. Personal spending is likely to rise 0.3 percent in the month of January, after falling 0.1 percent in December.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) Statistics Canada releases its Raw Material Price Index for the month of February. The index posted a decline of 0.3 percent in January.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) Statistics Canada will report its industrial producer prices for the month of February. The indicator rose 3.8 percent in the prior month.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) Statistics Canada is expected to report that gross domestic product remained flat in January after easing 0.1 percent in the previous month.
- (0945 ET/1345 GMT) Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index is likely to show that business conditions eased to 61.0 in March from 64.7 last month.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) The U.S. new single-family home sales are expected to have gained 1.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 620,000 units in February. New home sales dropped 6.9 percent in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 units.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) The University of Michigan is likely to report that U.S. consumer sentiment index rose to 97.8 in March after posting a similar reading in the previous month.
- (1300 ET/1700 GMT) Baker Hughes reports U.S. Oil Rig Count.
Key Events Ahead
- (0925 ET/1325 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams speaks in St. Thomas, Virgin Islands
- (0930 ET/1330 GMT) Norwegian Finance Minister Siv Jensen speaks at a seminar in Oslo organised by World Economic Forum
- (1030 ET/1430 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan will participates in moderated Q&A session before the Global Asset Management Education (GAME) Conference, New York.
- (1205 ET/1605 GMT) Federal Reserve Vice Chair Randal Quarles speaks at the Manhattan Institute's Shadow Open Market Committee's Spring 2019 Meeting in New York
FX Beat
DXY: The dollar index rallied for the fourth straight session after U.S. officials said China has made proposals in trade talks with the United States. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded flat at 97.21, having touched a peak of 97.34, its highest since Mar. 11. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at 150.95 (Slightly Bullish) by 1000 GMT.
EUR/USD: The euro plunged to a 3-week low and was headed for its worst month since October, weighed down by fears about economic growth and cautious signals from the European Central Bank. The European currency traded 0.05 percent down at 1.1215, having touched a low of 1.1209, its lowest since Mar. 8. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at -119.03 (Highly Bearish) by 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1285 (Mar. 28 High), a break above targets 1.1359 (Mar. 18 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1200, a break below could drag it till 1.1176 (Mar. 7 Low).
USD/JPY: The dollar rallied to a 1-week peak as investors responded positively to a bounce in U.S. Treasury yields and on optimism over trade talks between the United States and China. The major was trading 0.2 percent up at 110.76, having hit a high of 110.93 earlier, its highest since Mar. 21. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at 19.46 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures, new home sales and Fed officials' speech. Immediate resistance is located at 111.23 (Feb. 25 High), a break above targets 111.46 (Mar. 12 High). On the downside, support is seen at 109.91 (Mar. 26 Low), a break below could take it lower at 109.55 (Feb. 6 Low).
GBP/USD: Sterling slumped to a near 3-week low, ahead of the last attempt by British Prime Minister Theresa May to win support from lawmakers for her Brexit deal. The major traded 0.05 percent down at 1.3032, having hit a low of 1.3002 Friday; it’s lowest since Mar. 11. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at -76.26 (Slightly Bearish) 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.3109 (Feb. 20 High), a break above could take it near 1.3160 (Jan. 31 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.2960 (Mar. 11 Low), a break below targets 1.2895 (Feb. 19 Low). Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.1 percent down at 86.09 pence, having hit a low of 86.29 earlier, it’s lowest since Mar. 22.
USD/CHF: The Swiss franc eased, hovering towards a 1-week low hit in the prior session, as the greenback surged following a rebound in the U.S. Treasury yields. The major trades 0.05 percent up at 0.9958, having touched a low of 0.9905 on Wednesday; it’s lowest since Mar. 21. FxWirePro's Hourly Swiss Franc Strength Index stood at 27.38 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. On the higher side, near-term resistance is around 0.9986 (Jan. 22 High) and any break above will take the pair to next level till 1.0024 (Feb. 22 High). The near-term support is around 0.9895 (Jan.17 Low), and any close below that level will drag it till 0.9852 (Jan. 4 Low).
Equities Recap
European shares surged, boosted by upbeat signs on U.S.-China trade talks, while sterling declined as British PM May puts Brexit deal to vote.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index rallied 0.3 percent at 377.95 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 0.2 percent to 1,486.09 points.
Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.3 percent up at 7,256.61 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 gained 0.2 to 18,942.83 points.
Germany's DAX rose 0.3 percent at 11,462.36 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.5 percent higher at 5,321.54 points.
Commodities Recap
Crude oil prices declined despite the ongoing OPEC-led supply cuts and U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.8 percent down at $67.44 per barrel by 1020 GMT, having hit a high of $68.33 on Wednesday, its highest since Mar. 21. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.5 percent higher at $59.76 a barrel, after rising as high as $60.37 last week, its highest since the Nov. 12.
Gold prices plunged to a 3-week low and were headed for its worst month since August 2018 on a stronger dollar and equities. Spot gold was 0.1 percent down at $1,291.45 per ounce by 1024 GMT, having touched a low of $1,286.65, its lowest since March 8 and was set for its first weekly fall in four. U.S. gold futures were down 0.2 percent at $1,287.40 an ounce.
Treasuries Recap
The U.S. Treasuries suffered during afternoon session, ahead of the country’s personal consumption expenditure for the month of January, scheduled to be released today by 12:30GMT. Further, FOMC members Williams, Kaplan and Quarles are also scheduled to deliver their respective speeches later in the day. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped nearly 3 basis points to 2.417 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields surged 2-1/2 basis points to 2.836 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year traded 3-1/2 basis points higher at 2.266 percent.
The United Kingdom’s gilts gained during the afternoon session, ahead of investors’ interest on today’s House of Commons for another Brexit debate and vote, the latter of which is set to be conducted shortly after 2.30GMT. The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilts, suffered 1-1/2 basis points to 0.985 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields slipped 1 basis point to 1.528 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year traded nearly 1-1/2 basis points down at 0.648 percent
The Japanese government bonds slid on the last trading day of the week tracking a similar movement in the United States’ Treasuries amid a muted trading session that witnessed data of little economic significance. The yield on the benchmark 10-year JGB note, which moves inversely to its price, slightly gained to -0.092 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year also edged higher to 0.510 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year too traded tad up at -0.177 percent.
The Australian government bond yields during Asian trading session tracking a similar movement in the United States counterpart as investors moved towards riskier assets after trade talks resumed between the U.S. and China. The yield on Australia’s benchmark 10-year note, which moves inversely to its price, surged 4-1/2 basis points to 1.771 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year bond climbed 3 basis points to 2.406 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year traded tad higher at 1.456 percent.
