Market Roundup
• UK Employment Change 3M/3M (Nov): 82K, 27K forecast, -16K previous.
• UK Claimant Count Change (Dec): 17.9K, 15.6K forecast, -3.3K previous.
• UK Unemployment Rate (Nov): 5.1%, 5.1% forecast, 5.1% previous.
• UK Average Earnings Index + Bonus (Nov): 4.7%, 4.6% forecast, 4.8% previous.
• German PPI (YoY) (Dec): -2.5%, -2.4% forecast, -2.3% previous.
• UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Nov): 4.5%, 4.5% forecast, 4.6% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:15 US ADP Employment Change Weekly: 11.75K previous.
•15:00 US Milk Auctions: 3,533.0 previous.
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction: 3.570% previous.
• 16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction: 3.490% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 16:30 German Buba President Nagel Speaks.
• 16:30 SNB Vice Chairman Schlegel Speaks.
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed against dollar on Tuesday as threats from the White House to Europe over the future of Greenland triggered a broad selloff across U.S. stocks and government bonds, and drove the euro higher. On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump's renewed tariff threats against European allies triggered a repeat of the so-called "Sell America" trade that emerged after last year's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement in April, with stocks, Treasury bonds and the dollar all declining.Investors were dumping dollar assets on "fears of prolonged uncertainty, strained alliances, a loss of confidence in U.S. leadership, potential retaliation and an acceleration of de-dollarisation trends.The euro rose 0.6% to $1.1719. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1732(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1806(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1701(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1666(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose on Tuesday as dollar weakened after threats from the White House to Europe over the future of Greenland triggered a broad selloff in greenback. On the data front,Britain's jobs market weakened in the run-up to November's budget announcement by finance minister Rachel Reeves and wage growth slowed, data showed on Tuesday, potentially easing the Bank of England's worries about persistent inflation pressures.A measure of payrolls data from the tax office showed a drop of 43,000 in December from November, the biggest monthly fall since November 2020 although there have been bigger preliminary estimates of falls in that period which were subsequently revised up, an Office for National Statistics official said.A fall of 38,000 first reported for November was revised to show a decline of 33,000 people in payrolled employment. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3460(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3496(Jan 12th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3370(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3331(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Tuesday as President Donald Trump’s tariff threat against Europe over Greenland revived “sell America” sentiment, pushing the U.S. dollar lower. The greenback remained under pressure amid concerns over persistent instability, strained global relations, and weakening confidence in U.S. leadership. Trump has intensified efforts to assert sovereignty over Greenland from NATO ally Denmark, prompting the European Union to consider retaliatory measures.On the data front, attention turns to Australia’s December employment report on Thursday, where a Reuters poll forecasts job gains of around 30,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.4%. In the U.S, focus will be on third-quarter GDP, expected to show annualized growth of 4.3%, and November core PCE inflation, forecast at 0.2% month-on-month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6749(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6768(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6701(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6699(SMA 20)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped against the yen on Tuesday as renewed trade-war fears weighed on risk sentiment and triggered selling of U.S. assets. Trump’s tariff threats sparked a strong backlash in Europe and raised doubts over the outlook for trade agreements with the region. Attention now shifts to Davos, where Trump is due to meet global business leaders on Wednesday, with his presence set to dominate the annual gathering in Switzerland. Meanwhile, investors are watching next month’s election, as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi seeks support for higher spending, tax cuts, and a new security strategy to accelerate defence expansion. The Bank of Japan meets on Friday and, while a rate hike is unlikely, policymakers may hint at tightening as early as April. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.21(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.00(Psychological level) a break below could take the pair towards 157.11 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European shares tumbled to their lowest in nearly two weeks on Tuesday, as mounting unease over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threat over Greenland hurt optimism from earlier in the month.
At (GMT 10:18),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.24 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.48 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 1.19 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold surged past the $4,700-an-ounce mark for the first time on Tuesday, while silver hovered just below a fresh record high, as rising global tensions triggered another flight to safe-haven assets.
Spot gold gained 1.3% to $4,727.99 per ounce by 0910 GMT, having hit an all-time high of $4,731.34, while silver rose 0.7% to $95.34 an ounce, after hitting a record high of $95.488 earlier in the session.
U.S. gold futures for February delivery climbed 3% to $4,734.10 per ounce.
Oil prices were steady on Tuesday as investors tracked President Donald Trump’s tariff threats against European countries over his push to acquire Greenland, while stronger global growth expectations and upbeat Chinese economic data helped support prices.
Brent futures for March shed 11 cents, or 0.17%, at $63.83 a barrel at 0918 GMT, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude contract for February was down 49 cents, or 0.8%, at $58.95.
