Market Roundup
•Swiss Aug CPI (YoY) -0.9%,-0.8% forecast, -0.9% previous
•Swiss Aug CPI (MoM) 0.0%,0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous
• Italian Aug Composite PMI 49.5, 52.5 forecast, 52.5 previous
• Italian Aug Services PMI 47.1, 49.2 forecast, 51.6 previous
•French Aug Services PMI 51.5, 51.9 forecast, 57.3 previous
•French Aug Markit Composite PMI 51.6, 51.7 forecast, 57.3 previous
•German Aug Composite PMI 54.4, 53.7 forecast, 55.3 previous
•German Aug Services PMI 52.5, 50.8 forecast, 55.6 previous
•EU Aug Services PMI 50.5, 50.1 forecast, 54.7 previous
•EU Aug Markit Composite PMI 51.9 , 51.6, 54.9 previous
•UK Aug Composite PMI 59.1, 60.3 forecast, 57.0 previous
•UK Aug Services PMI 58.8, 60.1, forecast 60.1, 56.5 previous
•EU Jul Retail Sales (MoM) -1.3%, forecast 1.5% , 5.7% previous
•EU Jul Retail Sales (YoY) 0.4%,3.5% forecast 3.5, 1.3% previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 881K, 950K forecast, 1,006K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 991.75K ,1,068.00K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 13,254K, 14,000K, 14,535K previous
•US Exports 168.10B ,158.25B previous
•US Imports 231.70B, 208.95B previous
•US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) 10.1% ,7.5% forecast, 7.3% previous
•Canada Jul Exports 45.43B, 38.80B forecast, 39.71B previous
•US Jul Trade Balance -63.60B ,-58.00B, -50.70B previous
•Canada Imports 47.88B,41.30B forecast, 42.90B previous
•Canada Trade Balance -2.45B, -2.50B forecast, -3.19B previous
•US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2) 9.0% ,12.1% forecast, 12.2% previous
•Russia Central Bank reserves (USD) 591.8B, 590.8B previous
•Brazil Aug Markit Services PMI 49.5, 42.5 previous
•Brazil Aug Markit Composite PMI 53.9, 47.3 forecast, 47.3 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•13:45 US Aug Markit Composite PMI 54.7 forecast, 50.3 previous
•13:45 US Aug Services PMI 54.8 forecast, 50.0 previous
•14:00 US Aug ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 57.0 forecast, 58.1 previous
•14:00 US Aug ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 65.0 forecast, 67.2 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment 42.1 previous
•14:00 US Aug ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 57.6 previous
•14:00 US Aug ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders 67.7 previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 34B, 45B previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•15:00 ECB's Schnabel Speaks
Fx Beat
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Thursday as the European Central Bank was worried about euro's rise. After the euro touched $1.20 earlier this week, worries brewed in the market that the rise had come too fast and strong for the ECB’s liking. Fears have intensified after a Financial Times report confirming those concerns. ECB policymakers reportedly warned that if the euro keeps appreciating it will weigh on exports, drag down prices and intensify pressure for more monetary stimulus. That followed remarks on Tuesday from ECB chief economist Philip Lane, who said the exchange rate “does matter” for monetary policy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1853 (11 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1950 (23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1782 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1751 (50%fib ).
GBP/USD: The pound fell on Thursday, extending its losses on a combination of dollar strength and worries about Brexit negotiations. The Bank of England’s deputy governor, Dave Ramsden, said on Wednesday that the level of British economic output would permanently be about 1.5 percentage points lower than it would be had it not been for the pandemic. The European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, meanwhile, said that Britain had not changed its position on key sticking points in Brexit trade talks and that he was worried and disappointed. At 1230 GMT, sterling was last down against greenback at $1.3269.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3363 (Sep 3rd high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3464 (23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3241 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3167 (21DMA).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Thursday as growing hopes of an economic recovery bolstered risk appetite. Bolstering bets for a recovery from a pandemic-induced economic slump, an industry survey showed recovery in China’s service sector activity extended into a fourth straight month in August. The Federal Reserve, in its “Beige Book” report, highlighted that U.S. business activity and employment ticked up through late-August, but economic growth was generally sluggish as COVID-19 hotspots hampered reopening. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9142 (61.8%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9200 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9096 (21 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9074 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Thursday as growing worries about Sino-U.S. relations increased risk appitite. Fears of a further escalation in tensions overshadowed positive data showing China’s service sector activity grew for a fourth straight month in August to stay above the 50-mark. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies to be up 0.3% . It was higher on the safe haven Japanese yen at 106.40. Strong resistance can be seen at 106.54 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 106.83 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 106.05 (21DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 105.54 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares surged on Thursday as a swathe of middling local economic data fuelled continued bets on easy monetary policy to combat the shock from the coronavirus outbreak.
At (GMT 12:30),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.41 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.84 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.56 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell to a near one-week low on Thursday, as a stronger U.S. dollar and an uptick in risk appetite following better-than-expected economic data dented demand for the safe-haven metal.
Spot gold was down 0.5% to $1,933.06 per ounce by 0723 GMT, after falling to its lowest since Aug. 28 at $1,926.99 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures fell 0.3% to $1,939.
Oil prices extended losses on Thursday, falling by more than 2% to their lowest point since early August, as worries about weaker U.S. gasoline demand and a sluggish economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic dented sentiment.
Brent crude fell $1, or 2.25%, to $43.43 a barrel by 1118 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down $1.02, or 2.5%, at $40.49 a barrel.Both benchmarks fell more than 2% on Wednesday.
