At present, the early PMI signal for Q4 growth suggests some minor upside risk to the forecast of 0.4% q/q. However, the November surveys are expected to moderate slightly from October, with the composite index edging down to 53.6. Nevertheless fluctuations in the 52-54 range (where the composite index has been for much of 12m) carry limited implications for the near-term recovery picture.
Later this week we get money and credit data (Thursday); these were the one bright spot for the ECB, though the most recent report pointed to a slump in the growth rate of loans to the private sector. Some of that is expected to be reversed this time.


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