EUR/USD Climbs Toward 1.20 — Fed Pause Fuels Bullish Momentum

EUR/USD gained slightly after US Fed rate pause. It hits an intraday high of 1.1993 and is currently trading around 1.19675.  Intraday trend remains bullish as long as support 1.1830 holds. 

The Federal Reserve's FOMC decided at its January 28, 2026 meeting to maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, reflecting confidence in a solidly expanding economy with resilient consumer spending, solid growth, low but stabilizing job gains, and an unemployment rate showing signs of stabilization, while inflation remains somewhat elevated above the 2% goal. The Committee emphasized elevated uncertainty and balanced risks to its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, committing to monitor incoming data closely—including labor market conditions, inflation pressures, expectations, financial conditions, and global developments—and stands ready to adjust policy if risks emerge that could hinder progress. The decision passed with support from Chair Jerome Powell and most members (a 10-2 vote), but Governors Stephen I. Miran and Christopher J. Waller dissented, preferring a 0.25 percentage point rate cut following the prior 75 basis points of cumulative reductions. Implementation details include the interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65%, primary credit rate at 3.75%, repo and reverse repo rates at 3.75% and 3.5% respectively, and continued short-term Treasury purchases and principal rollovers to ensure ample reserves and smooth market functioning.

The pair is holding above the 55 EMA, 200 EMA, and 365 EMA in the 4-hour chart. Near-term resistance is seen at 1.1200, a break above this may push the pair to targets of  1.2085/1.2135/1.21995. On the downside, support is seen at 1.18890; any violation below will drag the pair to 1.18290/1.1765/1.1700/1.1660.

Market Indicators and Trading Strategy

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)-  Bullish

Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) - Neutral

 It is good to buy on dips around 1.1890 with a stop-loss at 1.1835 for a target price of 1.200/1.2085./1.2148.