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The Hungarian forint is expected to rise to a level of 315.00 against the euro by the third quarter of this year, according to a recent research report from Commerzbank. Hungarian CPI data for January turned out to be supportive of MNB's ultra-dovish monetary policy stance.
The headline inflation reading was slightly above expectation at 2.1 percent y/y, but most underlying core inflation indicators were either unchanged at well-below inflation target, or were slightly softer in January: core inflation softened from 2.6 percent in December to 2.5 percent in January; tax-adjusted core inflation was unchanged at 2.2 percent and ‘demand-sensitive inflation’ softened from 1.8 percent to 1.7 percent.
What is crucial in all this is that after longer than a year of solid economic growth and falling unemployment, core inflation is not only stuck below inflation target, it is once more moderating.
"We think that MNB will probably even step up its unconventional monetary easing in coming quarters," the report added.
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