EUR: Data secondary to Greek developments

Greek political developments will likely be the primary driver of EUR this week and should keep downward pressure on the currency. 

In terms of data, some rebound is expected in German industrial production (Monday) in April after several consecutive months of declines (consensus: 0.6%), euro area final Q1 GDP to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q (in line with consensus) and euro area IP to rebound by 0.5% m/m in April (consensus: 0.4%), consistent with broadly stable manufacturing business surveys. 

The Q1 GDP release should reveal that private consumption was the main source of growth, as consumer spending was boosted by lower oil prices (+0.3 pp). 

"We look for investment to have contributed slightly to growth for the second consecutive quarter (+0.1pp), a similar contribution to that of inventories",says Barclays.

Net trade contribution should be slightly negative, as imports accelerated moderately, while exports grew at the same pace as in Q4 14 (+0.4% q/q).