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EUR-CZK likely to decline in H1 2017

Czech Republic's Industrial output came in weaker than expected as it decline to 2.6% m/m in December as compared to consensus of 4% rise. Unexpected changes in car or capital goods manufacturing are likely to be the reasons for the industrial output to drop, however, January data will be providing a clear picture on it.

According to FX reserve data, CNB's reserves rose in January; similar to last August when the central bank intervened with large volumes as speculations against exchange rate floor had increased. The total intervention amount summed up to 9 billion EUR from July to December, considerably more than 7.5 billion EUR utilized in 2013 to set up the base.

"This development is seen FX-neutral in the near-term -- no EM currency is under massive appreciation pressure right now -- rather, EU fund inflow could be the reason behind the sharp January increase in reserves". says Commerzbank in a research note " EUR-CZK to decline to 24.10 by H1 2017" 

 

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