Dutch consumer spending likely to accelerate in 2016 but growth likely to drop back in 2017

The Netherlands is expected to witness acceleration in consumer spending in 2016. However, with temporary factors declining in 2017, growth is likely to slow again in 2017. Conversely, export growth is likely to recover in 2017 that will make up for lower domestic spending growth. Overall, Netherlands GDP is likely to expand 2% in 2016 and 2017. But with the increased uncertainty internationally, there is a high probability that the economy might grow below the projected levels.

The Netherlands economy expanded 0.3% q/q in Q4 2015, after growing 0.1% in Q3 2015, according to the first estimate of Statistics Netherlands (CBS). Private investment mainly drove the economic growth. This was greatly a brief effect, expected to have been caused by higher car sales in Q4, because of the implementation of new fiscal rules from January 2016 onwards.

Household consumption fell slightly because of the exceptionally warm weather. Growth in export was surprisingly weak. This is possibly because of slowdown in emerging economies' growth and the uncertainty regarding global financial markets. Netherlands' GDP volume for the entire 201 5 expanded 1.9%, the fastest growth since 2007.